Bitcoin Clears $96K Resistance as Traders Brace for Fed Update

In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has edged up by 2.35%, returning to levels above $96,000. The timing is no coincidence — the market is holding its breath ahead of today’s Federal Reserve meeting, where a new stance on interest rates will soon be made public.

Markets opened on a cautious yet optimistic note:

• S&P 500 futures: +0.5%
• Brent crude: +1.39%
• Gold: –0.62% 

What’s striking is the market’s composure: even as tensions rise between India and Pakistan, investors have yet to react with the usual reflexive retreat.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. saw a net capital pullback of $85.7 million on May 6 — a comparatively minor outflow following a run of strong buying days.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) continued its leadership trend, posting $36.7 million in net inflows and keeping its no-outflow streak alive for a 16th day.

Though the price has inched higher, the emotional weather of the crypto market remains largely unchanged:

• The Fear & Greed Index remains neutral at 53.
• BTC dominance surpasses 64.2%, squeezing altcoin momentum.
• The Altseason Index sits at 25, indicating no shift from Bitcoin-driven trends.

The Rhythm of the Bitcoin Market

After buyers held the line at $92,000, Bitcoin surged past $96,000 in a sharp, confident climb — a move that speaks to the market’s appetite for further gains.

But that rise came at a cost: over $315 million in liquidations swept the order books, with $152 million wiped from long positions alone — a reminder of how momentum cuts in both directions.

Despite early volatility in April, Bitcoin ended the month ahead of both gold and the S&P 500 in terms of return — a reminder of its enduring strength as a risk asset with upside.

And while BTC remains closely tethered to equity market trends, its sharper trajectory hints at a higher-yielding path — one still shaped by correlation, yet defined by outperformance.

Fed Decision Looms: Market Eyes on Powell’s Tone

At 18:00 UTC today, the Fed will reveal its latest decision on interest rates. But the real catalyst lies in Jerome Powell’s post-announcement tone. A hawkish stance could pressure risk assets, while any dovish pivot might extend the current rally.

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A rate move today is highly unlikely — and the markets know it.

• CME’s FedWatch tool gives just a 3.1% chance of a cut to 4.00–4.25%. 
• Polymarket traders are even more certain, with 98% betting on no change.

With such consensus, the Fed’s decision is already baked into asset prices — leaving guidance as the main market-moving variable.

Donald Trump has made several public appeals for Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, pointing to accommodative policies in Europe and elsewhere.

Nonetheless, Powell has reiterated that any move to ease policy hinges on actual economic data — particularly sustained disinflation, which remains absent. The Fed's stance continues to emphasize independence and data-dependence over political influence.

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Trump’s tariff war could add fuel to inflation expectations, prompting the Fed to hold off on any premature policy moves. Medium-term price stability risks are likely influencing its posture.

Given the Fed’s structural independence — and with Powell’s term in place through next year — political interference remains a remote scenario in shaping near-term rate decisions.