Weekly Analysis of BTC, ETH, and the Stock Market (09.09.2024)
An overview of BTC, ETH, XAUT, and S&P500 charts, and the current cryptocurrency market dynamics.
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Bitcoin (BTC)
Despite the short-term downtrend and negative sentiment among traders, BTC remains in a sideways range within the broader support zone of $51,000–$54,600.
If buyers fail to defend this range, the situation could deteriorate significantly, with BTC potentially dropping to $49,000. A break below this level would signal the start of a deeper downtrend, making $49,000 a critical level for buyers.
For the price to resume its upward momentum, BTC must break through the resistance level at $59,086 and then overcome the resistance zone of $61,300–$65,500. Only after a sustained move above $65,500 can we confidently talk about a return to an uptrend.
BTC/USDT H4 Chart
Ethereum (ETH)
ETH is currently trading within the buyer’s zone of $2,100–$2,300, and its reaction to this range will determine the asset’s next movement.
If ETH drops below $2,100, the next support level is the psychological mark of $2,000. Losing this level could indicate a shift into a prolonged downtrend that could last several months.
A potential return to growth will only be possible after testing the seller’s zone at $2,700–$2,850.
ETH/USDT H4 Chart
S&P500 (SPX)
The S&P 500 index continues to move within an ascending channel. Last week, the index failed to reach a new all-time high (ATH) and corrected to the $5,400 level, leaving this scenario still in play.
However, if the S&P 500 falls below $5,100, the index may undergo a deeper correction. In that case, it would likely test the lower boundary of the ascending channel, between $4,200–$4,400.
This potential drop should be viewed as a correction, presenting an opportunity to accumulate positions at more favorable prices.
SPX W1 Chart
Tether Gold (XAUT)
Gold continues its impressive upward movement, steadily reaching new highs. A breakout above $2,533 and holding above this level is the most likely scenario. It’s difficult to predict the maximum potential of this rally, as the asset has never traded at such levels before.
A correction in XAUT seems highly unlikely, and any pullbacks should be seen as opportunities to build long positions. Key support levels to watch are $2,435 and the $2,340–$2,400 zone.
XAUT/USDT D1 Chart
BTC Dominance, Altcoin Season Index, and Fear and Greed Index
BTC dominance has barely changed from last week, standing at 56.85%. Bitcoin's dominance over other cryptocurrencies remains solid.
BTC Dominance Index. Source: tradingview.com
The Altcoin Season Index has risen by a few points and is now at 27. Altcoins are still significantly lagging behind BTC, and there’s no indication that this will change soon.
Altcoin Season Index. Source: blockchaincenter.net
The Fear and Greed Index is currently in the “Fear” zone with a score of 26. Interest in crypto assets is returning at a slow pace, with buyers still feeling uneasy and the risk of a market drop remaining high.
Fear and Greed Index. Source: alternative.me
Economic News
This week is packed with the following economic events:
- U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation (Wednesday, September 11)
- U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (Wednesday, September 11)
- U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and Producer Price Index (PPI) (Thursday, September 12)
It's advisable to avoid active trading or significantly reduce risk around these news releases, as these events will have a major impact on the USD and, by extension, cryptocurrency price movements.
Check out The Coinomist for the latest cryptocurrency rates and chart analysis.
Disclaimer
Please note that the analysis provided above should not be considered a trading recommendation. Before opening any deals, we strongly advise conducting your own research and analysis.
Abbreviations
TF (Timeframe) — a chronological period equal to the time it takes to form one Japanese candle on the chart.
Horizontal channel (flat, sideways, range) — the price movement between support and resistance levels, without going beyond the given range.
К — simplified designation of one thousand dollars of the asset price (for example, 23.4K – $23,400).
Gray range on the chart — a support zone.
Red range on the chart — a resistance zone.
Correlation — the tendency of prices of different cryptocurrencies to move in sync, often influenced by the dominance of one of the assets.
Initial materials
This analysis was informed by the following educational materials and articles from The Coinomist:
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