Weekly Analysis of BTC, ETH, and the Stock Market (12.08.2024)

Bitcoin (BTC)

The cryptocurrency market has not fully recovered from last week's decline. Bitcoin continues its local downtrend, having tested the significant resistance zone between $60,000 and $63,500 but failing to maintain a foothold above this level and subsequently falling back below $60,000. This range is critical for further growth; if buyers cannot breach it on a second attempt, Bitcoin risks a deeper correction. 

Currently, support levels are bolstered by buy orders positioned at $56,845 and within the range of $49,100 to $53,000. This latter zone may be retested.

BTC/USDT H4 Chart

Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum mirrors Bitcoin's pattern, though the altcoin is experiencing a somewhat steeper correction. 

Over the past week, ETH failed to reach its resistance zone of $3,100 to $3,400 and unsuccessfully tested the selling range of $2,700 to $2,850 twice. 

If the correction continues, it would be logical to see a new low below the $2,100–$2,380 zone, potentially reaching down to the psychological level of $2,000. 

ETH/USDT H4 Chart

S&P500 (SPX)

The most popular stock index, the S&P 500, predictably continued to trade within the previously analyzed channel. The index tested its local low at $5,200 before rebounding to levels above $5,340. 

For sustained long-term growth, it seems optimal to test the lower boundary of the ascending channel around $4,730, providing the market with the necessary correction. 

However, market buyers might prevent this adjustment. Hence, it's crucial to monitor today's stock market opening to discern the prevailing investor sentiment.

SPX W1 Chart

Tether Gold (XAUT)

Gold remains one of the few assets that continue to move with minimal corrections. Currently, XAUT is trading near the seller's zone between $2,447 and $2,486. Testing this range could potentially lead to reaching new highs.

However, turmoil in the stock market could prompt a corrective movement in XAUT. Under such circumstances, the asset might test the support range between $2,355 and $2,400, and touch the buyer level at $2,335.

A significant correction or shift to a downward trend in gold is unlikely.

XAUT/USDT D1 Chart

BTC Dominance, Altcoin Season Index, and Fear and Greed Index

Last week, the Bitcoin dominance index revisited a two-year high at 57.71% before slightly retracting to 57.13%. Investors continue to show little interest in altcoins, even reducing their open positions, leading to an increase in BTC's dominance.

BTC Dominance Index. Source: tradingview.com

The Altseason Index has risen by 4 points but remains very low, scoring only 24 points. This reaffirms the ongoing lack of market interest in alternative coins.

Altcoin Season Index. Source: blockchaincenter.net

The Fear and Greed Index is currently marked at ‘Extreme Fear' with a score of 25. The index has remained relatively unchanged from last week, indicating that the potential for growth is still surprisingly low.

Fear and Greed Index. Source: alternative.me

Economic News

The upcoming week is packed with key economic events:

• US Producer Price Index (Tuesday, August 13);
• Crude oil inventories and the Consumer Price Index, which measures US inflation levels (Wednesday, August 14);
• Core Retail Sales Index, the number of initial unemployment claims, the Manufacturing PMI, and the total retail sales volume in the US (Thursday, August 15).

Special attention should be given to the news that will be released after Wednesday. The inflation rate and the unemployment numbers in the US offer a detailed picture of the global economic situation, and these factors greatly influence the stock market and, consequently, the demand for cryptocurrencies.

Check out GNcrypto for the latest cryptocurrency rates and chart analysis.

Disclaimer

Please note that the analysis provided above should not be considered a trading recommendation. Before opening any deals, we strongly advise conducting your own research and analysis.

Abbreviations

TF (Timeframe) — a chronological period equal to the time it takes to form one Japanese candle on the chart.

Horizontal channel (flat, sideways, range) — the price movement between support and resistance levels, without going beyond the given range.

К — simplified designation of one thousand dollars of the asset price (for example, 23.4K – $23,400).

Gray range on the chart — a support zone.

Red range on the chart — a resistance zone.

Correlation — the tendency of prices of different cryptocurrencies to move in sync, often influenced by the dominance of one of the assets.

Initial materials

This analysis was informed by the following educational materials and articles from GNcrypto:

• TOP 5 Useful Chart Analysis Tools on TradingView
• How Are Trading Volumes Useful in Cryptocurrency Analysis?
• Candlestick Patterns: Types and How They Work in Trading
• The Most Popular Chart Patterns for Crypto Trading