Weekly Analysis of BTC, ETH, and the Stock Market (16.09.2024)
An overview of BTC, ETH, XAUT, and S&P500 charts, and the current cryptocurrency market dynamics.
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Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin remains trapped in a broad sideways range between the support zone of $51,000–$54,600 and the resistance zone of $61,400–$65,500.
For BTC to resume its upward trend, it needs to break above the intermediate seller level at $59,086 and clear the current resistance zone. Otherwise, Bitcoin risks dropping back below $55,000.
This week, pay attention to macroeconomic factors, particularly the decision on interest rates. This could significantly impact overall market liquidity: lower interest rates mean more money in the system, and higher rates do the opposite. Keep this in mind when making trade decisions.
BTC/USDT H4 Chart
Ethereum (ETH)
Ethereum is underperforming compared to Bitcoin and is currently testing support between $2,100 and $2,300. ETH has been unable to regain an upward trajectory or hold above $2,517.
If buyers succeed in pushing the price higher, the next target will be the $2,700–$2,850 range, where strong resistance exists due to a cluster of sell orders. This area will be a crucial test for Ethereum.
However, Ethereum’s movement is likely to depend on Bitcoin’s overall trend, as ETH traders may struggle to generate enough momentum on their own.
ETH/USDT H4 Chart
S&P 500 (SPX)
The S&P 500 index is maintaining its upward trend, approaching a new yearly high. The index is currently at $5,626, and a challenge to the all-time high (ATH) could happen within the next few weeks.
At this point, the likelihood of a correction seems low. However, a pullback to the $5,100–$5,300 buyer zone could provide an opportunity to accumulate long positions if it occurs.
SPX W1 Chart
Tether Gold (XAUT)
Gold reached another all-time high last week, surpassing $2,590. The asset continues its strong upward trend, with no signs of a reversal yet.
At this point, XAUT is best suited for long positions. A potential local correction to $2,499 could provide a good opportunity for opening long trades or purchasing the asset on the spot market.
A drop below the buyer zone of $2,355–$2,395 seems highly unlikely at this time.
XAUT/USDT D1 Chart
BTC Dominance, Altcoin Season Index, and Fear and Greed Index
BTC dominance increased by another 1% over the past week, currently sitting at 57.94%. Bitcoin continues to dominate investor interest, while altcoins are losing traction.
BTC Dominance Index. Source: tradingview.com
The Altcoin Season Index has slightly improved, now sitting at 43 points, which is a positive signal for altcoins. Over the last three months, this index has rarely exceeded 30 points.
Altcoin Season Index. Source: blockchaincenter.net
The Fear & Greed Index is at 39, indicating “Fear.” While investor sentiment has improved slightly compared to last week, there is still a lack of risk appetite in the market.
Fear and Greed Index. Source: alternative.me
Economic News
Key macroeconomic events to watch this week include:
- U.S. core retail sales (Tuesday, September 17)
- U.S. crude oil inventories, the FOMC press conference, and the interest rate decision (Wednesday, September 18)
- U.S. existing home sales and initial jobless claims (Thursday, September 19)
Particular attention should be given to the interest rate decision, one of the most significant factors influencing inflation and market liquidity. Cryptocurrency price movements after Wednesday could be highly volatile and unpredictable, so it may be wise to refrain from active trading during this period.
Check out GNcrypto for the latest cryptocurrency rates and chart analysis.
Disclaimer
Please note that the analysis provided above should not be considered a trading recommendation. Before opening any deals, we strongly advise conducting your own research and analysis.
Abbreviations
TF (Timeframe) — a chronological period equal to the time it takes to form one Japanese candle on the chart.
Horizontal channel (flat, sideways, range) — the price movement between support and resistance levels, without going beyond the given range.
К — simplified designation of one thousand dollars of the asset price (for example, 23.4K – $23,400).
Gray range on the chart — a support zone.
Red range on the chart — a resistance zone.
Correlation — the tendency of prices of different cryptocurrencies to move in sync, often influenced by the dominance of one of the assets.
Initial materials
This analysis was informed by the following educational materials and articles from GNcrypto:
- TOP 5 Useful Chart Analysis Tools on TradingView
- How Are Trading Volumes Useful in Cryptocurrency Analysis?
- Candlestick Patterns: Types and How They Work in Trading
- The Most Popular Chart Patterns for Crypto Trading
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