Weekly Analysis of BTC, ETH, and the Stock Market (23.09.2024)
An overview of BTC, ETH, XAUT, and S&P500 charts, and the current cryptocurrency market dynamics.
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Bitcoin (BTC)
The Federal Reserve's recent 50 basis point interest rate cut has positively impacted Bitcoin, breaking the cryptocurrency out of its local downtrend and pushing it towards the resistance zone of $63,500–$65,000.
If sellers fail to maintain this range, BTC could continue its upward trajectory, with the next resistance level at $66,330. Currently, it’s advisable to avoid short positions at any resistance level, as the upward trend remains strong.
A potential pullback to support zones at $60,200–$61,700 and $57,780 might present opportunities to accumulate long positions. However, the chance of BTC dropping to these levels appears minimal.
BTC/USDT H3 Chart
Ethereum (ETH)
Ethereum is also experiencing strong upward momentum. Over the past week, ETH has gained 16%, with a significant resistance zone now at $2,700–$2,850.
Buyers may push through this range, potentially driving ETH to the psychological mark of $3,000 by month’s end. The reaction at this level will likely determine the market’s next move.
In the event of a pullback, Ethereum could find support at $2,517. A more significant downturn could occur if ETH drops to the $2,100–$2,300 range. However, the primary focus remains on BTC's price movement.
ETH/USDT H4 Chart
S&P 500 (SPX)
The S&P 500 index hit a new all-time high last week, reaching $5,733. Stocks within the index responded positively to the Federal Reserve's rate cut, a development that was widely anticipated.
With no major economic news expected that could significantly impact the SPX, the index is likely to continue moving within its upward channel, gradually setting new highs.
SPX W1 Chart
Tether Gold (XAUT)
Gold continues to follow the market’s upward trend. The gold-backed stablecoin XAUT reached a new all-time high last week at $2,632, and this upward movement is expected to continue.
Any correction in XAUT is likely to be seen as an opportunity to increase long positions. The nearest support level is at $2,499, with a broader buyer zone between $2,355–$2,394.
XAUT/USDT D1 Chart
BTC Dominance, Altcoin Season Index, and Fear and Greed Index
Last week, BTC dominance slightly decreased to 57.66%. While this remains a strong level, altcoins are slowly showing signs of upward momentum. If the positive market sentiment continues, BTC dominance is likely to decline further.
BTC Dominance Index. Source: tradingview.com
The Altcoin Season Index hasn't shown a positive correlation with BTC dominance. The index dropped by 10 points since the last review, now sitting at 33. This suggests that investors remain cautious and aren't yet moving heavily into alternative cryptocurrencies.
Altcoin Season Index. Source: blockchaincenter.net
The Fear & Greed Index is currently in the “Fear” zone, with a score of 50, leaning towards a neutral stance. Interest in cryptocurrencies is gradually returning, which could lead to an increased appetite for risk in the near future.
Fear and Greed Index. Source: alternative.me
Economic News
This week brings several key economic reports:
- U.S. Manufacturing and Services PMI (Monday, September 23)
- U.S. Consumer Confidence Index (Tuesday, September 24)
- U.S. New Home Sales (Wednesday, September 25);
- U.S. Q2 GDP, Initial Jobless Claims, and a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell (Thursday, September 26);
- U.S. Core PCE Price Index (Friday, September 27).
Among these, Thursday's reports are expected to have the most significant impact on both traditional markets and cryptocurrencies. The rest of the week's events might cause short-term volatility but are unlikely to lead to major market shifts.
Check out The Coinomist for the latest cryptocurrency rates and chart analysis.
Disclaimer
Please note that the analysis provided above should not be considered a trading recommendation. Before opening any deals, we strongly advise conducting your own research and analysis.
Abbreviations
TF (Timeframe) — a chronological period equal to the time it takes to form one Japanese candle on the chart.
Horizontal channel (flat, sideways, range) — the price movement between support and resistance levels, without going beyond the given range.
К — simplified designation of one thousand dollars of the asset price (for example, 23.4K – $23,400).
Gray range on the chart — a support zone.
Red range on the chart — a resistance zone.
Correlation — the tendency of prices of different cryptocurrencies to move in sync, often influenced by the dominance of one of the assets.
Initial materials
This analysis was informed by the following educational materials and articles from The Coinomist:
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