Weekly Analysis of BTC, ETH, and the Stock Market (Dec 30, 2024)
An overview of BTC, ETH, XAUT, and S&P500 charts, and the current cryptocurrency market dynamics.
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Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin’s price action remains confined to a horizontal channel, ranging from $92,200–$94,200 in support to $98,700–$101,000 in resistance. At the moment, the lower boundary is being tested.
A recovery depends on buyer strength. If Bitcoin can rebound, it may revisit the $98,700–$101,000 resistance zone and potentially break through. This bullish outcome, however, is more likely after January 7, as BTC often gains momentum following the New Year’s pause. Notably, January 8, 2024, could bring heightened volatility and a continuation of the uptrend.
Conversely, a breakdown below the current support level could lead to a retest of $90,800.
BTC/USDT H4 Chart
Ethereum (ETH)
Like Bitcoin, Ethereum is navigating a sideways market, stuck between the $3,030–$3,200 buyer zone and the $3,530–$3,680 resistance. Any breakout from this range will likely hinge on BTC’s price action.
Should ETH gain bullish momentum, it could surpass the current resistance and head toward the next target at $3,910. Ethereum, however, still lags behind Bitcoin in updating its all-time high. For ETH, the $4,866 ATH remains a pivotal goal for the bulls.
In a bearish scenario, Ethereum risks sliding back to $3,030–$3,200, with the potential to set new local lows.
ETH/USDT H4 Chart
S&P 500 (SPX)
Closing at $5,970 last week, the S&P 500 continues to chart an upward course within its broader ascending channel. The recent pullback to $5,832 might have been the last correction of the current cycle.
Heading into 2025, assuming no major shocks disrupt the market, the index is likely to maintain its bullish momentum and could set new record highs.
However, risks remain, particularly from individual contributors like Boeing, whose shares could impact the index following a string of aviation accidents last week. A thorough review of all constituent stocks is necessary to gain a clearer perspective on the S&P 500’s longer-term trajectory.
SPX W1 Chart
Tether Gold (XAUT)
Gold continues its subdued performance, with movement constrained to a narrow band in recent weeks. As of now, XAUT is navigating a range between $2,510–$2,560 (support) and $2,685–$2,750 (resistance).
Breaking out of this sideways pattern will determine the metal’s next significant move. If the bullish trend resumes, buyers may set their sights on levels above the $3,000 psychological mark.
Should a correction deepen, prices could dip to $2,462 or $2,402, where spot accumulation scenarios are likely to reemerge.
XAUT/USDT D1 Chart
BTC Dominance, Altcoin Season Index, and Fear and Greed Index
The BTC dominance index, now at 57.84%, highlights growing focus on Bitcoin, leaving altcoins trailing in interest.
BTC Dominance Data. Source: tradingview.com
The Altseason Index sits at 47, signaling stagnant activity in the altcoin market. If the trend holds, liquidity could shift away from altcoins, intensifying price declines.
Altcoin Season Index. Source: blockchaincenter.net
Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index reads 65, firmly in the “Greed” category. Even after BTC’s dip to $92,000, market participants continue to explore investment opportunities within the crypto space.
Fear and Greed Index. Source: alternative.me
Economic News
While New Year festivities dominate the global calendar this week, Thursday, January 2, will still see the publication of several critical economic updates:
- U.S. initial unemployment claims,
- Crude oil inventory levels,
- The U.S. manufacturing PMI index.
Although these reports are unlikely to directly impact cryptocurrency prices, they could induce brief volatility, particularly in a low-liquidity market typical of the holiday season.
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Disclaimer
Please note that the analysis provided above should not be considered a trading recommendation. Before opening any deals, we strongly advise conducting your own research and analysis.
Abbreviations
TF (Timeframe) — a chronological period equal to the time it takes to form one Japanese candle on the chart.
Horizontal channel (flat, sideways, range) — the price movement between support and resistance levels, without going beyond the given range.
К — simplified designation of one thousand dollars of the asset price (for example, 23.4K – $23,400).
Gray range on the chart — a support zone.
Red range on the chart — a resistance zone.
Correlation — the tendency of prices of different cryptocurrencies to move in sync, often influenced by the dominance of one of the assets.
Initial materials
This analysis was informed by the following educational materials and articles from GNсrypto:
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