Weekly Analysis of BTC, ETH, and the Stock Market (Jan 6, 2025)
An overview of BTC, ETH, XAUT, and S&P500 charts, along with the current cryptocurrency market dynamics.
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Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin has started the new year on a steady note, trading within a range between the $91,500–$93,700 support zone and the $98,700–$101,000 resistance zone. The upper boundary of this range was recently retested.
While volatility may return to the market this month, significant price movement is expected after January 21, coinciding with the inauguration of newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump. If BTC breaks above and holds the $101,000 level, it could continue its upward trajectory toward the next resistance at $102,800.
However, if the resistance zone holds, Bitcoin could face a pullback to the $91,500–$93,700 support zone or even drop further to $90,800.
BTC/USDT H1 Chart. Source: WhiteBIT
Ethereum (ETH)
Ethereum buyers are challenging the $3,570–$3,720 resistance zone with solid momentum. If ETH can consolidate above this range, it may extend its local uptrend toward the $3,910 level.
That said, Ethereum’s strong correlation with Bitcoin remains a critical factor. If BTC loses buying pressure, Ethereum could follow suit. A deeper correction might see ETH retesting the $3,030–$3,200 support range, with a possibility of setting a new local low below the psychological $3,000 mark.
ETH/USDT H4 Chart. Source: WhiteBIT
S&P 500 (SPX)
The New Year holiday lull didn’t favor the S&P 500, as the index underwent a correction last week, dropping to a new local low of $5,829.
Despite this setback, the broader upward trend within the global ascending channel remains the dominant scenario. The next target for SPX is to retest and surpass its historical high above $6,100.
As with Bitcoin, the inauguration of Donald Trump warrants close attention, as it may lead to heightened volatility and sharp price movements in either direction.
SPX W1 Chart. Source: TradingView
Tether Gold (XAUT)
Over the past month, XAUT has seen limited activity, continuing to trade within a horizontal range between the $2,510–$2,560 support zone and the $2,685–$2,750 resistance zone.
Given the overarching upward trend, further bullish momentum remains the primary outlook. In the coming months, XAUT could set a new all-time high (ATH) above $2,868, provided market sentiment stays positive.
However, temporary corrections are possible. Below the current support zone, key levels at $2,462 and $2,402 could be tested before a renewed push toward fresh highs.
XAUT/USDT D1 Chart. Source: WhiteBIT
BTC Dominance, Altcoin Season Index, and Fear and Greed Index
The Bitcoin Dominance Index is currently at 57.11%, a notable increase compared to early December 2024. This reflects heightened investor caution as Bitcoin’s price corrected to $91,000, leading to a decline in interest in altcoins.
BTC Dominance Index. Source: tradingview.com
The Altcoin Season Index stands at 57, signaling uncertainty in the altcoin market. Investors appear hesitant about continuing aggressive altcoin purchases.
Altcoin Season Index. Source: blockchaincenter.net
The Fear & Greed Index is currently at 76, indicating “Extreme Greed.” This suggests that traders remain optimistic, with strong buyer activity in the market.
Fear and Greed Index. Source: alternative.me
Economic News
Several important macroeconomic indicators are scheduled for release this week, including:
- Monday, January 6: U.S. Services PMI
- Tuesday, January 7: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index and JOLTS Job Openings
- Wednesday, January 8: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Initial Jobless Claims, U.S. Crude Oil Inventories, and FOMC Meeting Minutes
- Friday, January 10: U.S. Average Hourly Earnings, BLS Nonfarm Payrolls, and Unemployment Rate
While these reports are unlikely to have a direct or lasting impact on cryptocurrency prices, they may increase market volatility temporarily. Traders should take these events into account when planning their strategies.
Check out The Coinomist for the latest cryptocurrency rates and chart analysis.
Disclaimer
Please note that the analysis provided above should not be considered a trading recommendation. Before opening any deals, we strongly advise conducting your own research and analysis.
Abbreviations
TF (Timeframe) — a chronological period equal to the time it takes to form one Japanese candle on the chart.
Horizontal channel (flat, sideways, range) — the price movement between support and resistance levels, without going beyond the given range.
К — simplified designation of one thousand dollars of the asset price (for example, 23.4K – $23,400).
Gray range on the chart — a support zone.
Red range on the chart — a resistance zone.
Correlation — the tendency of prices of different cryptocurrencies to move in sync, often influenced by the dominance of one of the assets.
Initial materials
This analysis was informed by the following educational materials and articles from The Coinomist:
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