Bitcoin’s Sleeping Supply Grows: How It Affects BTC Price

The latest halving reduced Bitcoin’s daily issuance by half. Before April 2024, miners produced around 900 BTC per day. That number has now dropped to 450, as the block reward fell from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

The halving itself came as no surprise; it’s a built-in feature of Bitcoin’s code designed to prevent inflation. What even Satoshi Nakamoto may not have anticipated, however, is that so many BTC holders would simply stop spending their coins.

For the First Time in History: Ancient Bitcoins Are Accumulating Faster Than New Ones Are Mined

The number of BTC that haven’t moved in over 10 years is now growing faster each day than the number of new coins being mined. This shift is steadily compressing Bitcoin’s available supply, making it less responsive to future demand.

At present, around 566 BTC enter the “ancient supply” category each day. In comparison, daily issuance stands at 450 coins. That leaves a gap of 116 BTC per day, the amount by which Bitcoin’s potential supply is declining. It’s a trend that may be going unnoticed by many investors.

Ancient BTC refers to coins that have not moved from their last address for more than 10 years. The total volume of such coins reached 3.4 million BTC, or roughly 17% of all Bitcoin ever issued. For the first time in the network’s history, long-term accumulation is outpacing the inflow of newly minted coins. 

Some of these coins are likely lost, with access to their private keys permanently gone. Others are the result of a deliberate HODL strategy, where holders choose not to sell regardless of price movement. Data from multiple analysts shows that coins in HODL wallets remain inactive 97% of the time, making them one of the most consistent sources of market scarcity.

The largest holder of ancient BTC remains the wallet associated with Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. It holds 1.1 million BTC, or roughly 5.2% of the total supply.

The Fewer BTC on the Market, the More Sharply Price Reacts to New Demand

As the supply of circulating coins declines, the market grows more sensitive. Even a small increase in demand can drive sharp price movements, simply because there is less available to buy. This dynamic is becoming more apparent with the rising interest from large investors and spot ETFs.

To understand the logic behind this process, let’s step away from Bitcoin for a moment and look at how supply and demand work through a more familiar example.

Picture an apple tree. Gardeners pick the fruit and bring it to market. However, not all the apples reach the stalls. Some people take them home to save for later, some forget where they put them, and others simply don’t want to sell. As a result, there are plenty of buyers, but fewer apples on the market. And the fewer apples remain, the more expensive each one becomes.

Funds and institutional players are now buying Bitcoin faster than miners can produce it. According to forecasts from Bitwise, total capital inflows into BTC could reach $300–420 billion by 2026. 

The high HODL rate adds to the effect. New coins don’t stay in circulation; they are quickly bought and moved to cold wallets. As a result, each new wave of demand acts as a lever, moving the price more sharply than the last.

If “ancient” holders continue to keep their BTC off the market, even a slight increase in interest could lead to an outsized price reaction.

Ancient BTC May Never Return to the Market

As mentioned earlier, not all “ancient” BTC represents investment held with the intention of selling at a higher price. Many of these coins are simply lost. Wallets with no access, forgotten seed phrases, or cold storage without heirs make some of them effectively dead.

However, even those who intentionally hold their BTC show no signs of parting with them anytime soon. 

For example, the largest corporate holder of BTC, Strategy, openly signals its long-term conviction in Bitcoin. Its founder, Michael Saylor, began buying coins back in 2020 and still believes their value will rise significantly. Since then, the company’s approach has remained unchanged: accumulate BTC regardless of market fluctuations.

As of June 2025, 27 publicly listed companies held more than 800,000 BTC (nearly 4% of the total supply). The pace of accumulation has accelerated, especially since 2023, as new participants have joined the trend.

Another example is the creation of Bitcoin reserves at the state level. El Salvador was the first to adopt this initiative. At the time of writing, the country holds 6,200 BTC (around $650 million) in its reserves. 

The trend of accumulating BTC is gaining momentum in the United States. As with most global initiatives, the U.S. set the tone. Following Donald Trump’s statements about plans to establish a national Bitcoin reserve, other countries initiated similar proposals. Although the law has not yet been passed, the U.S. already controls around 210,000 BTC seized in crypto-related criminal cases.

Governments are unlikely to hold BTC for just 5 to 10 years. That horizon is too short. Under Senator Cynthia Lummis’s proposal, the holding period for the national reserve would span 20 years. If adopted in that form, the amount of “ancient” BTC will likely grow. And grow significantly.

Counterpoint: 5-Year BTC Holders Are Selling More Than Ever

After the 2024 U.S. elections, even hardcore Bitcoin holders began to change their behavior. Typically, wallets holding BTC for more than five years show little movement. But since November 2024, activity among these holders has increased.

According to Fidelity, in 39% of the days following the most recent U.S. elections, wallets holding BTC for over five years showed outflows. That’s nearly three times more frequent than the long-term average of just 13% of days.

The reasons behind this activity include:

• Increased market uncertainty
• A desire to lock in profits after price gains
• Technical transfers between users’ own wallets

You might say the last point does not count as selling, and you would be right. Still, even if the coins were not sold, their movement reduces the amount of BTC considered part of the ancient supply. This affects liquidity metrics and can influence investor sentiment.

No need for panic. These episodes remain exceptions. The overall trend of long-term holding continues. Even during periods of uncertainty, the ancient supply keeps growing.

BTC Only Becomes More Scarce

Each new halving (once every four years) reduces the number of newly mined BTC. At the same time, the share of coins that remain unmoved for years continues to grow. As a result, the available supply keeps shrinking, unless long-term holders start selling or new investors stop holding on to their assets.

According to Fidelity projections, by 2028, the ancient supply of BTC could reach 20% of all coins ever mined. By 2034, that figure may climb to 25%. When including public companies that hold more than 1,000 BTC, the figure may reach 30% by 2035.

Against this backdrop, demand will play an increasingly significant role in shaping the price of BTC. A leverage effect could emerge, where price movements become more abrupt rather than gradual. Simply because there is little left to buy.

Still, it’s worth noting that the final Bitcoin is not expected to be mined until October 8, 2140. Until then, the supply will continue to tighten, but it won’t halt completely.