Bitcoin Faces New Quantum Risk — RSA Breaking Now 20x Cheaper

Recent findings from Google Quantum AI indicate that cracking 2048-bit RSA encryption may now demand just one-twentieth of the quantum resources once assumed necessary. This breakthrough raises fundamental concerns about the resilience of conventional cryptographic infrastructures.

Though Bitcoin utilizes elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) rather than RSA, ongoing algorithmic and quantum correction advancements significantly accelerate the horizon of potential threats — underscoring the need for proactive migration toward post-quantum security protocols.

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RSA Security Threatened by Advances in Quantum Efficiency

According to Google Quantum AI’s latest report, authored by Craig Gidney, the quantum resource requirements to factor a 2048-bit RSA modulus have dropped significantly. The process can now be executed with under 1 million qubits and approximately seven days of computation — a substantial reduction from the 20 million qubits estimated in 2019.

The efficiency gains are attributed to new algorithmic optimizations, particularly the use of Chevignard–Fouque–Schrottenloher-style approximate modular exponentiation and improved quantum error correction protocols.

Despite IBM’s Condor surpassing 1,000 qubits and Google’s Sycamore reaching 53, quantum systems capable of breaking RSA encryption are still years away. However, according to indirect quantum threat metrics, the expected timeline for risk is shrinking — accelerating the urgency for post-quantum cryptographic readiness.

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Rising Quantum Risk for Bitcoin and Blockchain Security

Bitcoin and many altcoins use elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) to secure transactions, but ECC is vulnerable to Shor’s algorithm — the most effective quantum method for breaking modern encryption. While ECC-256 offers more robust protection than RSA, quantum threats evolve non-linearly, making the timeline harder to predict. In April, a research collective named Project 11 initiated a 1 BTC challenge to anyone capable of breaking ECC keys from 1 to 25 bits — offering a public benchmark for quantum progress in cryptographic attacks.

Q-Day could hit in just five to seven years, warns David Carvalho, CEO of Naoris Protocol. And the threat isn’t future-tense — attackers are already grabbing encrypted data, planning to break it later once quantum power catches up (“Store Now, Decrypt Later”).

‬It’s not just Bitcoin. Ethereum and most blockchains today rely on ECC, and quantum will shatter that. It’s simply mathematics… cryptography is the new geopolitical weapon,

Carvalho told Beincrypto.

Time to Go Post-Quantum Is Now

The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has issued its initial post-quantum cryptography (PQC) standards, advising all sectors to phase out vulnerable encryption algorithms by 2030 and implement full deprecation by 2035.

Major tech firms like Google and IBM have begun testing PQC-based signatures and encryption protocols (1, 2). However, securing blockchain transactions — both past and future — requires coordinated global action from developers and network validators.

Although quantum computers with one million qubits are not yet a reality (IBM Condor has 1,121 qubits; Google Sycamore has 53), attackers are already harvesting encrypted data for future decryption. Delaying post-quantum readiness could expose critical Web3 infrastructure to retrospective breaches.

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