Arthur Hayes’ New Essay: BTC to Hit $1M by 2028

Arthur Hayes, former head of BitMEX and one of crypto’s most prominent macro thinkers, has released a new essay titled “Fatty Fatty Boom Boom,” drawing a sharp parallel between the U.S. economy and the country’s obesity epidemic.

Hayes focuses not only on public health but also on the underlying mechanics of global capital. He argues that a new wave of regulatory tightening will drive foreign capital out of the U.S., while the looming devaluation of government debt could push Bitcoin to $1 million by 2028.

A Deep Metaphor: Obesity and Economic Discord

Hayes opens his essay with an unexpected analogy: the scale and consequences of America’s obesity crisis resemble the economic imbalance of Pax Americana. He explores how Big Ag and pharmaceutical lobbyists have shaped “convenient” narratives that mask the true drivers of chronic disease and mounting debt.

Big Ag engineered the food system to favor a profitable business model built on processed, nutrient-deficient products. As a result, obesity rates continue to rise, while corporations cash in on medications that treat symptoms, not the underlying causes.

Don’t get it twisted, whether you believe copious rolls of human flesh are aesthetically pleasing is irrelevant. However, the metabolic dysfunction caused by obesity is sometimes beautiful but is always deadly,

he wrote.

Hayes draws a parallel with U.S. monetary policy, arguing that each credit bubble is met with another round of money printing, mimicking economic resolution while preventing natural market cleansing. The prolonged “Brrr button” approach has fueled the rise of financial assets concentrated in the hands of a small group of investors, while the broader population has seen little to no benefit.

Mechanisms of Financial Realignment

Hayes outlines two ways to correct the trade imbalance: aggressive tariffs or a more discreet approach—capital controls. He argues that U.S. policymakers, including the Trump administration, are gradually moving away from tariffs and leaning toward taxing foreign investment.

Related: Fed Holds Rates Steady Citing Tariff Risks

Hayes suggests that introducing a gradual tax on foreign portfolio assets would push investors to either pay a 2% annual fee or pull their capital out of the U.S. A resulting capital outflow, he notes, would weaken the dollar and raise the cost of American goods, ultimately encouraging the return of domestic manufacturing.

Impact on Bitcoin

In the financial section of the essay, Hayes examines the history of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the scale of money printing since 1913. He argues that each financial crisis has been met with fresh monetary issuance, deepening trade and capital imbalances. 

Hayes predicts the Fed will eventually resume quantitative easing. In his view, these dynamics will create favorable conditions for Bitcoin to climb as high as $1 million by 2028.

Related: Arthur Hayes Challenges Fed Independence in His New Essay “The BBC”

Foreign capital repatriation and the devaluation of the gargantuan stock of U.S. treasuries will be the two catalysts that will power Bitcoin to $1 million sometime between now and 2028,

he wrote.

Hayes calls the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap a universal lifeboat for global capital, independent of intermediaries and able to move freely across jurisdictions.

As in his earlier essays, he points to China as a case in point. Despite strict regulations, the country’s OTC market continues to show resilient demand for private Bitcoin transactions. In his view, this signals that state bans cannot fully suppress the asset.

Related: Arthur Hayes Predicts BTC Surge Driven by China