Solana ETF: The New Frontline in America’s Crypto Regulation Battle
SEC fast-tracks Solana ETF review as eight issuers – Fidelity, Grayscale, and more – rush to file updated S-1s, with Bloomberg and Polymarket odds at 90%+ for approval in 2025.
On this page
The ongoing race to launch a spot Solana ETF has rapidly become one of the most watched developments in the crypto investment world. With eight issuers now officially in the running – and regulatory momentum building – analysts are calling this the next major “ETF summer” for altcoins. Bloomberg’s senior ETF analysts, James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, now see approval as not just possible, but likely in 2025. Polymarket odds have soared to 91%, reflecting this surge in optimism.
Solana ETF Frenzy: The Crypto Market’s New Obsession
A spot Solana ETF is a proposed exchange-traded fund designed to directly track the price of Solana (SOL). Several of the recent applications also include novel provisions to distribute the network's staking rewards to investors. In the past two weeks, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has accelerated its review of Solana ETF applications, directly engaging with fund issuers to update filings. As of June 16, eight issuers – including industry heavyweights like Fidelity, Grayscale, Bitwise, 21Shares, VanEck, Franklin, Canary, and CoinShares – have submitted revised S-1 filings that include language for staking.
This acceleration matters for two reasons:
- The ETF would give both institutions and retail investors regulated access to Solana, bypassing the complexities of crypto wallets and on-chain risks.
- The SEC’s willingness to review staking language signals a possible regulatory green light for staking-based crypto products – something previously off-limits in the U.S.
The numbers speak for themselves: Bloomberg Intelligence now puts the odds of Solana ETF approval in 2025 at 90%. With analysts showing this level of confidence, Solana is widely seen as the frontrunner among altcoin ETF candidates after Bitcoin and Ethereum.
ETF Summer: Why Solana’s Moment Might Be Now
James Seyffart, Bloomberg’s lead ETF analyst, believes the rapid pace of filings and the SEC’s direct engagement are unprecedented outside of Bitcoin and Ethereum. “Get ready for a potential Alt Coin ETF Summer with Solana likely leading the way,” wrote Eric Balchunas, referencing Seyffart’s morning note on June 10. Both analysts flagged the significance of the SEC requesting explicit staking disclosures from issuers, which suggests a genuine willingness to consider new structures beyond spot price tracking.
It's only a matter of time before the US has both ETH staking and SOL staking ETFs. The timing of each is up in the air at the moment. Final deadlines for each of those are in October,
commented James Seyffart in a recent tweet.
Seyffart’s commentary points to two dynamics: the possibility that Solana staking ETFs could debut alongside (or even before) Ethereum staking ETFs, and that the “final” decision window – October 2025 – may not actually be the moment of truth. As he notes, the SEC could act at any point, and the current level of regulatory engagement is itself a signal of progress. Recent delays in some applications, such as the Franklin SOL ETF, are “expected” and should be seen as procedural rather than indicative of trouble.
$175K on the Line: How Analysts and Betting Markets Align on Solana ETF
What makes this cycle different is how closely institutional analysts and retail sentiment align. According to Bloomberg Intelligence’s dashboard, the odds of Solana ETF approval in 2025 match the Polymarket betting market – both sitting at or above 90%. These numbers have remained high in parallel for several weeks, and Polymarket odds in particular jumped immediately after the SEC requested updated filings from all eight issuers.
I wouldn't be completely shocked if we see approvals for Solana ETFs in the next month or so. But I also wouldn't be surprised if we have to wait until the final deadline in October. Timeline unknown. At the end of day – the SEC is engaging and that's a good sign.
– added James Seyffart.
The fact that decentralized prediction markets, with $175,000+ in trading volume, are almost perfectly in sync with the most respected ETF analysts in traditional finance, is a rare alignment in crypto. This convergence not only adds credibility to the approval narrative, but also fuels further applications – CoinShares entered the race as the eighth issuer in mid-June, possibly responding to the growing interest from both institutions and the broader market.
What’s Next for Solana – and Crypto ETFs?
Solana ETF approval is shaping up to be the most anticipated regulatory event of 2025 outside of a potential Ethereum staking ETF. With eight major issuers, escalating SEC engagement, and a 91% market-implied probability, the Solana ETF race has become a barometer for altcoin adoption in the U.S. The only remaining question: not if, but when.
The content on The Coinomist is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. While we strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content. Neither we accept liability for any errors or omissions in the information provided or for any financial losses incurred as a result of relying on this information. Actions based on this content are at your own risk. Always do your own research and consult a professional. See our Terms, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers for more details.
Articles by this author
