The Hottest Bets on Polymarket: What the Market Is Predicting Now 

It’s not just elections or sports that people bet on; users on the popular crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket are also weighing in on sensitive global issues. In 2025, a lot of the hottest bets are about how long conflicts might last, what the economic fallout could be, and who might end up leading different countries.

The idea of betting on war outcomes raises ethical questions. But on the flip side, these markets reflect public sentiment and can offer insights into how people perceive geopolitical risks, insights that may be useful for those tracking global trends or making investment decisions.

Of course, participating in prediction markets is a personal choice, and it’s not a topic I’ll unpack fully here. Instead, we’ll take a look at some of the most talked-about markets right now, what people are betting on, and what those bets might tell us about how we see the world evolving next. It’s important to note that Polymarket users create all bets. Once approved, they become available for trading.

5 Trending Polymarket Bets in Summer 2025 

A look at Polymarket reveals the global events driving discussion: tensions in the Middle East, a possible ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, trade policies, and financial market reactions. Beyond politics and the economy, there are also trending bets on tech developments, sports, and culture. Below are 5 popular Polymarket debates, along with the current prediction results.

1. Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Before July 2025? 

Below 20% chance

The conflict over Gaza between Israel and Palestine has a history going back decades. In recent years, tensions have escalated, and since October 7, 2023, Israel and Hamas, the Palestinian militant group that governs Gaza, have been engaged in a large-scale war. In June 2025, military confrontations also broke out between Israel and Iran. According to US sources, Iran has long provided military and financial support to Hamas. Meanwhile, Palestinian officials accuse the US administration and its allies of ignoring Israeli actions in Gaza. On Polymarket, odds for an Israel-Hamas ceasefire before July have dropped sharply to below 20%, down from 84% in April 2025. The total trading volume for this market exceeds $5 million.

2. Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2025?

24% chance 

On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a war against Ukraine, framing the invasion as a mission to demilitarize troops in the Donbas region. Diplomatic efforts have so far failed to bring peace, and the June 2025 negotiations in Istanbul didn’t lead to a lasting outcome, though both sides did agree to a prisoner exchange. Polymarket users aren’t optimistic about successful negotiations by the end of this year. According to predictions, there’s a 24% chance of a general pause in the conflict. The odds were as high as 78% in February 2025, driven by renewed diplomatic efforts and Donald Trump’s pledge to end the war, an effort that hasn’t succeeded so far. The total amount wagered on this outcome exceeds $11.6 million.

3. US Military Action Against Iran Before July 2025? 

Over 50% chance 

Polymarket users anticipate that the U.S. may initiate military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or other targets between March 31 and June 30, 2025. This concern is growing as strikes between Israel and Iran continue. Iran’s nuclear program plays a key role in the conflict. While the country does not possess nuclear weapons, its uranium enrichment facilities and weapons research are viewed as major threats by the U.S., Israel, and their allies. Donald Trump stated that the U.S. will not allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon. His stance was reiterated in a June 17, 2025, post on Truth Social: “IRAN CANNOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!” Trump also urged Iran to sign the deal, which he “told them to sign.”

4. Which Countries Will the US Agree to Trade Deals With Before July 2025?

Since February 2025, Donald Trump has announced new global trade tariffs, starting with increasing tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico. These changes have shaken financial markets, triggering major volatility. According to Trump, the U.S. economy will benefit from “fair and reciprocal” tariffs and an America-first approach. He declared April 2, 2025, as “Liberation Day,” announcing a 10% universal tariff on all imports and reciprocal tariffs on many countries. Polymarket users predict that certain countries are more likely to reach trade agreements with the US, with India leading the prediction chart at 42%, followed by Vietnam and Mexico.

5. What Price Will Bitcoin Hit in 2025? 

The majority of Polymarket users, 71%, believe Bitcoin will reach $120,000 by the end of 2025. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at around $104,000, with a market cap of over $2 trillion. So far, Bitcoin’s all-time high was $111,970, reached on May 22, 2025. Meanwhile, 29% of users believe Bitcoin will drop to $70,000, and 3% think it could surge to $1 million.

The Bigger Picture Behind the Predictions

Polymarket is just one of several prediction markets, alongside platforms like Kalshi and other decentralized protocols. These markets offer insight into collective expectations by allowing real money bets on future events.

Analysis shows Polymarket’s forecasts can be highly accurate, with about 90% accuracy one month out and up to 94% just hours before events. This often outperforms traditional polls.

However, these numbers should be approached cautiously. Biases like groupthink, unbalanced user demographics, and low liquidity can distort odds. Ethical concerns also linger around betting on sensitive topics.