Gut Feeling or Wishful Thinking: Can You Really Sense the Market?

Every trader has likely experienced the quiet but urgent inner push: “Enter the trade now!” There may be no solid rationale, just a strong, hard-to-ignore urge not to miss out on a potential profit.

But what exactly is it? Intuition? Or just FOMO in disguise?

In the rational world of trading, where success hinges on indicators, charts, and algorithms, the irrational idea of a “gut feeling” remains surprisingly persistent. Some hail it as the mark of true mastery. Others treat it as a valuable insight. 

But can anyone truly feel the market well enough to steer it? Let’s explore.

How Intuition Works in Crypto Trading

In psychological terms, intuition is a fast, unconscious process that identifies familiar patterns based on prior experience. 

It activates when the brain responds to a recognizable set of signals, without engaging in deliberate analysis.

Psychologists believe intuitive decisions often rely on long-term implicit memory—stored knowledge that isn’t consciously accessible but still influences behavior. 

Intuition is the automated result of repeated exposure to similar situations, where a person develops sensitivity to micro signals and context. 

You’re not analyzing. You just know.

This kind of experience shows up across almost every field:

• A doctor senses something is off, even when blood tests and MRIs look fine. 
• A chess player immediately spots a weakness in the opponent’s position, even before a single misstep exposes it. 
• A driver slams the brakes, instinctively aware that a pedestrian is about to dart into the road.

In this sense, intuition is a form of deep recognition, shaped by accumulated observations of patterns.

Intuition tends to work well when traders back it with thousands of hours spent closely watching the market. 

A trader’s brain can unconsciously pick up on:

• Distinctive price movements 
• The rhythm of green and red candles 
• Familiar chart patterns 

It senses market tension before it shows up on the indicators. Sometimes, this manifests as an inexplicable internal signal: “Don’t enter here.”

Often, that signal prevents a losing trade.

We often find ourselves revisiting moments when intuition outperformed classic analysis. When all the indicators pointed to a solid, well-structured trade, but experience quietly warned: “Something’s off here.” 

Developing intuition seems like a smart move because it allows you to act faster than logic.

Related: Takashi Kotegawa: The Trader Who Broke the Japanese Stock Exchange

Where Does Intuition End and Self-Deception Begin?

The problem is, most traders start trusting their “sixth sense” long before they’ve built up real experience. At that point, it’s not intuition, it’s just an emotional impulse. 

It feels good to call it a “trader’s instinct,” but often, it’s just FOMO or a lucky guess we later reinterpret as proof of our supposed insight.

Without denying the existence of trader intuition, there’s little doubt that seasoned professionals will warn you: these moments (when “intuition” goes against logic or system signals) are risky. 

“There’s no entry according to the strategy, but I have a good feeling about this trade.” In most cases, that feeling leads to a mistake.

Related: The Hidden Mental Traps That Undermine Crypto Trader’s Success

How to Tell Intuition from Emotion

To know whether it’s truly your intuition speaking—or just your inner saboteur—it’s not the feeling itself you should examine, but the context.

Here are a few clear signs:

1. Intuition is rooted in experience

That inner voice gets sharper when you’ve encountered similar situations many times before. For example, a seasoned trader might sense whether a key level is about to break because they’ve watched how the price behaves in highly volatile conditions. They might feel the momentum dying out, even without a single indicator. However, if it’s your first year trading on a crypto exchange and you think you’re picking up on signals like these, it’s likely not intuition. It’s something else. 

2. An intuitive response is calm

It doesn’t demand immediate action or come with a surge of emotion. It’s a quiet whisper of true intent—not a breathless, hyped-up “Buy now, this is the one!”

3. Intuition works within your trading strategy

It might slow you down or give you a subtle push, but it doesn’t make the rules. If you “feel an entry” where your system says there’s none, there’s a good chance it’s not intuition at all. It’s your inner gambler looking to bend the rules.

4. Intuition is testable

You can ask yourself a few simple questions: “Have I seen this kind of situation before?” “Can I explain why I’m making this decision?” If the answers are calm and grounded, it’s probably intuition. If they’re vague or anxious, it’s likely just an impulse. But remember: the more logic you bring into the process, the less space there is for intuition. So when you’re checking in with yourself, don’t lose your mind over it. 

5. Intuitive signals tend to repeat themselves

If you’ve felt similar urges to act in comparable situations more than once, that’s a stable pattern—and one you can start to rely on. But if your gut feeling shows up differently each time, chances are it’s emotion wearing a mask.

To sum it up: intuition is the voice of experience. Emotion and self-deception are the voice of desire.

Even experienced traders can mix the two up.
However, they’re quicker at filtering out emotion, which helps them avoid acting on it. 

So, how does intuition fit into a trading system—the set of rules that governs your entries, exits, position sizing, risk assessment, and signal filtering? 

If that inner voice works within the system, it’s probably intuition. If it breaks the system, it’s most likely just a fleeting urge.

Related: Does Your Morning Routine Make or Break Your Crypto Strategy?

Intuition and Trading: How They Work Together

Sometimes it feels like intuition and a solid trading strategy don’t belong in the same room. If you’re committed to sticking to the plan, there’s no space for inner voices. But in reality, intuition can make your system more robust. 

You can even integrate it into your trading checklist. Think of it as a filter—a fine-tuning tool, or a prompt to reassess a trade. Your system can explicitly include a rule: take no action if intuition clearly says not to. That applies to both entries and exits.

A trading strategy is your set of algorithms; intuition is your built-in “weather sense.” One doesn’t replace the other, but together, they offer a fuller picture.

A good trader knows how to listen inward, but also checks those inner signals against real data. 

• Intuition without a system leads to spontaneous, unstructured decisions. 
• A system without intuition results in rigid, mechanical trading.  

Ultimately, skilled traders use a “two-in-one” approach. 

What if you still want to trust your sixth sense? 

That’s perfectly fine. We all want to believe we understand the market, not just follow instructions and push buttons. It’s human nature. There’s even a touch of jazz improvisation in it. But even the most seasoned jazz player builds on basic scales—the fundamentals that let you play on solid ground, not on sand.

Remember that scene in Star Wars when Luke switches off his targeting computer and trusts the Force? It looks epic on screen, but in real life, that only works if you’ve already earned your Jedi stripes. If not, you’re better off keeping the computer on.

Intuition isn’t a replacement for logic, and it’s not a reason to forget discipline. It only becomes a valuable signal when it’s grounded in trading experience and doesn’t conflict with your strategy.

Don’t rush to trust the first impulse. Learn to recognize where it’s coming from.

You can feel the market—but only after you’ve learned how to read it.

Related: Crypto Traders’ Daily Habits for Success in a Shaky Market