Bitcoin Could Reach $2.4M by 2030, ARK Invest Says in New Forecast

Updated ARK Invest Report

In the 2025 edition of its Big Ideas report, ARK Invest presents a recalibrated Bitcoin valuation model based on shifting macroeconomic trends and adoption curves.

By 2030, the projections suggest:

• $1.2 million in the base case, reflecting expected institutional and reserve uptake;
• $500,000 in the bear case, accounting for slower adoption and regulatory headwinds;
• $2.4 million in the bull case, assuming aggressive adoption across sectors.

Until recently, ARK Invest’s most optimistic target for Bitcoin topped out at $1.5 million. The decision to revise that already ambitious estimate came in light of fresh indicators—namely, the rapid acceleration of institutional interest and BTC’s deepening presence in the global financial order.

ARK Invest believes that over time, Bitcoin could take a solid place alongside major global assets—like real estate, stocks, reserves, and even gold.

In their bullish scenario, they estimate BTC might capture up to 6.5% of the global capital market share, excluding gold. That market, by ARK’s count, is worth about $200 trillion.

ARK Invest past forecasts: Incredible Ark Invest Predictions for 2023-2030

Included in ARK’s revised model are the implications of new FASB accounting standards, which allow U.S. public companies to report digital assets at fair market value, replacing the previous impairment-based model.

When combined with the maturing institutional infrastructure—such as spot ETFs, custodial frameworks, and derivatives markets—ARK sees a clear path for accelerated institutional participation and Bitcoin’s long-term asset-class legitimization.

Bitcoin Steps Into the Reserve Class

According to ARK’s revised outlook, Bitcoin is evolving into a globally relevant reserve asset, capable of holding its own against historically dominant asset classes like gold, real estate, and fixed-income securities.

Key catalysts behind Bitcoin’s projected rise, as outlined in the report, include:

• Sovereign and corporate-level adoption, signaling deepening institutional trust
• Use in international transactions, enhancing speed and efficiency
• A growing status as a hedge against inflation and fiat instability, reinforcing its role as a digital store of value

If Bitcoin really does climb to $2.4 million by 2030, its total value would be over $50 trillion—about the size of the entire world’s stock market today.

At that point, Bitcoin wouldn’t just be an asset. It would be the go-to global reserve for a new financial era.

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ARK highlights that achieving its upper-bound scenarios for Bitcoin is contingent on broad-based sectoral adoption, spanning institutional finance, corporate balance sheets, and even government-level reserves. The forecast also accounts for a significant portion of Bitcoin’s fixed supply being inactive or lost, contributing to its increasing scarcity premium.

Key downside risks include:

• tightening regulatory frameworks,
• rival cryptocurrencies vying for relevance, and
• the looming risk of technological flaws or exploits.