Bitcoin as a U.S. Strategic Reserve Asset: How Likely Is It?

What Is the U.S. Strategic Reserve?

A strategic reserve is a stockpile of essential assets that a country maintains to safeguard its economic stability and national security in times of crisis. These reserves act as a financial safety net, protecting the nation from the impacts of global disruptions. In essence, the U.S. Strategic Reserve serves as a “rainy day fund,” intended for use only in critical situations where the country's stability is at risk.

Unlike financial reserves, strategic reserves are not meant for daily expenditures—they are used only when national security is at risk. As of early 2025, the U.S. strategic reserve includes:

• Crude oil reserves, stored in government facilities to protect against fuel shortages and energy crises.
• Medical supplies and equipment, essential for responding to pandemics or health emergencies.
• Precious and rare-earth metals, critical for industrial production, defense, and energy sectors. These include uranium, titanium, plutonium, and lithium.

Each asset in the strategic reserve serves a specific purpose and is intended for immediate use in urgent situations.

Interestingly, gold is not part of the U.S. strategic reserve. However, this is not because the U.S. lacks confidence in its value; it is simply classified under a different category: the gold and foreign exchange reserve.

Unlike strategic reserves, gold is actively used in U.S. monetary policy, alongside the U.S. dollar. Due to its limited supply and constant demand, gold prices continue to rise, frequently reaching new all-time highs.

Why Bitcoin Could Be Added to the U.S. Reserve

The main driving force behind this idea is U.S. dollar inflation. While the dollar remains the global reserve currency, it has a relatively high inflation rate. This issue is worsened by the continuous printing of new dollars during periods of economic instability, which expands the money supply and erodes purchasing power.

Bitcoin’s key advantage is its deflationary nature. 

Unlike fiat currencies, BTC has a fixed supply cap of 21 million coins, making it a unique monetary asset—something that neither gold nor central bank-issued currencies can offer.

Another crucial factor is Bitcoin’s decentralization, which reduces the risks of manipulation, censorship, or external control. Unlike traditional financial assets, BTC cannot be easily frozen, restricted, or manipulated by centralized authorities.

Barriers to a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

Despite Bitcoin’s appeal as a digital asset, the likelihood of it being added to the U.S. strategic reserve in the near future remains low. 

Several key factors contribute to this skepticism:

1. Extreme Volatility and High Purchase Costs

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $98,000. Major U.S. companies like Grayscale, MicroStrategy, and Tesla began accumulating BTC when it was priced between $15,000 and $20,000. 

As a businessman, Donald Trump is unlikely to see BTC as a strategic buy at current market prices. Additionally, simply proposing a Bitcoin reserve bill could significantly increase Bitcoin’s popularity and demand, causing prices to skyrocket. By the time Bitcoin is officially recognized as a reserve asset, it could already be worth $150,000–$200,000, forcing the U.S. government to buy at inflated prices, driven up by its own policies. Given Trump’s business acumen, it seems highly unlikely he would approve such a move.

2. Bureaucratic Hurdles

The Trump administration has prioritized tackling illegal immigration, reclaiming the Panama Canal, and strengthening national security against terrorism. With such pressing political agendas, digital assets may struggle to gain attention. 

Additionally, the slow-moving nature of U.S. bureaucracy could delay or derail any Bitcoin-related legislation. If discussions and proposals are stalled for two to three years, they may become politically irrelevant, and the 2024 campaign promises regarding Bitcoin could be forgotten entirely.

3. National Security Concerns

Although 40–45% of Bitcoin mining operations are based in the U.S., an estimated 20% of global BTC mining is controlled by China. Given current geopolitical tensions, adding Bitcoin to the U.S. strategic reserve could contradict national security policies, exposing the country to potential price manipulation from Chinese traders.

These factors play a crucial role, and U.S. authorities will carefully evaluate them before making any decision on adding Bitcoin to the strategic reserve.

A 50/50 Chance?

According to crypto betting platform Polymarket, the odds of the U.S. establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve in 2025 are currently 48%. The betting condition states that by December 31, 2025, U.S. authorities must hold at least 1 BTC in the reserve for the wager to be considered successful.

With a trading volume of $690,000, this market highlights strong interest from both bullish traders who believe in Bitcoin’s inclusion and skeptics who see the idea as highly unlikely.

One crucial detail in the Polymarket bet is that it refers to a “national” Bitcoin reserve, not a “strategic” one. This distinction is significant because it suggests alternative ways the U.S. government could incorporate BTC into its financial framework. Rather than adding Bitcoin to the official strategic reserve, the government could establish a separate BTC reserve with a more symbolic or investment-driven purpose.

This approach would allow policymakers to accelerate discussions on state-level Bitcoin adoption.

Headlines like “The U.S. Establishes a National BTC Reserve, Acquires First 10,000 BTC” could easily emerge in 2025, but this would not mean Bitcoin has been officially designated as a strategic asset. Instead, such a reserve would function as a standalone fund, holding only BTC, which the U.S. could use to support domestic and international economic initiatives or simply integrate as part of a broader government investment portfolio.

So, Will a Bitcoin Reserve Happen or Not?

Many experts believe that BTC will not be added to the U.S. strategic reserve but could instead be placed in a separate national investment fund. This approach would position the U.S. as a leader in digital assets while making regulatory initiatives easier to implement without introducing national security risks.

Regardless of the outcome, any government action regarding Bitcoin is likely to increase its adoption. Current crypto policies primarily aim to promote awareness and integration, meaning that Bitcoin holders and investors stand to gain from any political moves related to digital assets.