Bitcoin Hits $85K Again as Traders Eye U.S. Tariff Risks

Bitcoin edged up 0.87% overnight, returning to the symbolic $85,000 threshold. The latest price swings are largely tied to speculative flows, as traders react to the fog surrounding new U.S. customs tariffs.

But the market’s pulse beats erratically. With liquidity thinning, institutional capital has turned cautious, seeking shelter in low-risk strategies, leaving the charts vulnerable to sharper intraday moves.

With sentiment gradually warming, the Fear and Greed Index has inched up to 29, hinting at a cautious return of investor confidence.

Bitcoin’s rise has tilted the scales further—its market dominance now stands at 62%, casting a long shadow over altcoins.

The Altseason Index, meanwhile, lingers at 16, suggesting that an altcoin surge remains on hold as Bitcoin continues to lead the narrative.

Institutions Step Back — Cash Reclaims the Throne

Even as BTC edges higher, institutional sentiment tells a more cautious story. For a third day running, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are bleeding capital.

On April 1, net outflows hit $157.8 million, per CoinGlass—a figure that more than doubled day-over-day.

Yet one name stands firm in the tide: BlackRock’s IBIT ETF, which has continued to draw capital for more than two weeks, emerging as a rare stronghold in an otherwise defensive market.

Veteran Holders Bide Their Time

Data from Glassnode suggests that 3–5 year BTC holders remain firm, waiting for a return to all-time high levels before cashing out.

However, there's been a subtle decrease in the realized cap* among 5–7 year holders, pointing to selective profit realization.

*Realized cap tracks the value of BTC based on the last price at which coins moved—offering a clearer view of investor behavior than market cap alone.

Glassnode’s research suggests that the bull market may be far from over. Currently, short-term investors control about 40% of Bitcoin’s realized cap—a figure that’s historically surged to 70–90% near cycle tops.

The implication? The market likely hasn’t reached a blow-off top yet, and the recent dip could be part of a standard correction within a rising cycle.

“Short-Term Holders currently hold around 40% of Bitcoin's network wealth, after peaking near 50% earlier in 2025″, as the report puts it.

From a short-term perspective, $85,000 stands as a foothold, a necessary base for Bitcoin to continue its climb. Breaching $90,000 would mark more than just a milestone—it would pave a potential path toward the coveted $100K range.

Yet, the climb is not without threats. Geopolitical friction or sudden tariff escalations could act as ice on the trail, sending Bitcoin down to $75,000 before any ascent resumes.

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