Polymarket Has Accumulated Almost $5M in Bets on the Next Pope
Polymarket, a prediction market platform, has seen nearly $5 million in total bets on who will be the next pope following Pope Francis’s death on April 21, 2025.
Bettors on the Polymarket platform are predicting who will succeed Pope Francis, with Cardinal Pietro Parolin receiving the majority of votes. At the time of writing, the total amount of bets is around $4.8 million.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican's Secretary of State, has a 31% chance of becoming the next pope, according to Polymarket users.
Other notable contenders include:
- Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines at 19%,
- Cardinals Péter Erdő (10%).
- Peter Turkson (10%).
- Matteo Zuppi (10%).
Despite the flurry of bets, it’s important to note that the papal conclave remains a deeply spiritual and confidential process. The next pope is expected to be elected during the 2025 papal conclave, which is anticipated to convene between May 6 and May 12, 2025.
This timing aligns with the Catholic Church's tradition of initiating the conclave 15 to 20 days after the papacy becomes vacant. The conclave will take place in the Sistine Chapel within Vatican City. Approximately 135 cardinal electors under the age of 80 are eligible to participate in the election, with 108 of them having been appointed by Pope Francis.
Related: Vatican Library Distributes NFTs
Pope Francis died on April 21 at the age of 88. Born Jorge Mario Bergoglio, he was the 266th pope of the Catholic Church and the first pope from Latin America. He was born on December 17, 1936, in Buenos Aires, Argentina, to Italian immigrant parents.
Before becoming pope, Bergoglio served as the Archbishop of Buenos Aires and was made a cardinal in 2001 by Pope John Paul II. He became pope on March 13, 2013, following the resignation of Pope Benedict XVI.
Pope Francis chose to live in the more modest Casa Santa Marta (St. Martha's House), a guesthouse within Vatican City, rather than the traditional Papal Apartments in the Apostolic Palace.
After the pope’s death, LUCE and other Vatican-themed memecoins spiked in price, becoming more volatile.
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