AI Can Predict Rogue Waves

Unlike tsunamis or storm surges, whose origins were understood, rogue waves appeared mysteriously in the open sea. Ships would face a sudden emergence of a 20-30 meter monstrous wave seemingly out of nowhere, with catastrophic consequences for marine vessels.

These stories were long regarded with skepticism, dismissed as little more than portside legends. However, concrete proof of these killer features of the sea emerged in 1995 when one such wave struck the Norwegian Draupner gas platform. Equipped with the most sophisticated digital instruments of the era, the platform captured video evidence of the incident. It showed that in regular sea conditions, a towering 26-meter wave formed in mere seconds right in front of the platform. 

This phenomenon also explains why some ships that disappeared never managed to send out distress signals—there simply wasn't enough time for radio operators to react.

This marked the beginning of a hunt for rogue waves. Researchers at the University of Copenhagen have initiated a comprehensive study on rogue waves by gathering data from 158 buoys deployed across global coastal zones. This collection effort has provided insights into the behavior of more than a billion waves.

Advanced artificial intelligence models have been pivotal in sorting through terabytes of data from this study. The revelations in 2023 astounded the scientific community.

AI Unravels the Mystery of Rogue Waves Source: Getty

The conventional hypothesis about the origins of these monstrous waves proved incorrect. Previously, it was believed that rogue waves formed sequentially: one wave would catch up with another, transferring its energy to it, and so forth. Instead, rogue waves are generated when two waves converge at an angle. As a wave circumnavigates an island, rock, or shoal, it splits into two. These halves then accelerate and merge with renewed force. Remarkably, this phenomenon does not require the presence of a strong storm—stable ocean currents and specific wind directions are sufficient.

The research team, led by Dion Häfner from the University of Copenhagen's Niels Bohr Institute and Johannes Gemmrich from the University of Victoria, identified approximately 100,000 rogue waves in locations monitored by sensors. Notably, regions with archipelagos, such as the infamous Bermuda Triangle, are particularly prone to these dangerous waves.

This research suggests that rogue waves are a frequent, everyday natural occurrence. Yet, due to the immense expanse of the world's oceans, the vast majority of these phenomena remain undetected.

AI technology now enables meteorological services to monitor rogue waves, allowing captains of more than 50,000 commercial ships to adjust their navigation routes based on this critical information.  Additionally, the project has yielded new insights into the nature of ocean waves at large, greatly enhancing our understanding of the ocean and improving the safety of maritime navigation.