09 Feb 2025

light mode

Is Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Breaking? Bitwise Weighs In

Is Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Breaking? Bitwise Weighs In

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, has spent years studying Bitcoin’s market trends. In his latest research, he poses a key question: Could Washington’s recent embrace of crypto disrupt Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle—a pattern that has historically dictated the market’s booms and busts?

On this page

The Cycle That Has Defined the Crypto Market

For years, Bitcoin’s market has followed a predictable cycle: three years of growth, followed by a sharp correction. But despite common belief, this pattern isn’t directly linked to Bitcoin’s halving—it’s more closely tied to broader economic trends, with crypto’s volatility amplifying the effects.

Each major bull run has been fueled by a technological breakthrough that attracted fresh capital:

  • Early 2010s: The rise of crypto exchanges like Coinbase and Mt. Gox, which opened the market to retail investors.
  • 2017: The ICO boom drove a wave of speculative investments before an SEC crackdown triggered a crash.
  • 2021: Institutional adoption of Bitcoin sparked a price surge, followed by financial crises driven by excessive leverage and fraud.

Now, Hougan is questioning whether this long-standing cycle is shifting.

The Mainstream Cycle and Its Catalyst

The current bull market began in 2023, following a period of mass liquidations. After the collapses of FTX, Three Arrows Capital, and Celsius, many doubted whether the crypto market could recover.

Then came a key catalyst: Grayscale’s legal victory against the SEC, which led to the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. When these ETFs launched in 2024, they exceeded all expectations, fueling unprecedented institutional demand.

Related: Rachel Aguirre Reflects on IBIT’s First Year in Action

The market’s response was immediate. 

When Grayscale first took on the SEC, Bitcoin was trading at $22,218. Today, it has surged past $102,000.

With ETFs making Bitcoin more accessible to institutional investors, governments and corporations have also started increasing their crypto holdings.

According to Matt Hougan, Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.

But a bigger question: will Bitcoin’s four-year cycle hold?

Historically, Bitcoin has followed a four-year cycle: three years of strong growth, followed by a correction — Bitwise.
- The Coinomist
Historically, Bitcoin has followed a four-year cycle: three years of strong growth, followed by a correction — Bitwise.
Source: bitwiseinvestments.com

Trump’s Executive Order: A New Era for Crypto?

In mid-January 2025, Donald Trump signed an executive order that could radically transform the future of the crypto market. The order designates digital assets as a national priority and lays the foundation for:

  • A clear regulatory framework
  • The creation of a national cryptocurrency reserve
  • Mass institutional adoption

For years, regulatory uncertainty has been a major barrier for institutional investors. Now, that’s changing. The SEC, once hostile toward crypto, is shifting toward a more supportive stance, opening the door for Wall Street’s largest financial institutions to enter the market.

While Bitcoin ETFs have already attracted hundreds of billions into the crypto economy, Trump’s executive order could bring in trillions.

Will This Break Bitcoin’s Traditional Cycle?

Historically, Bitcoin has followed a four-year cycle, with 2025 expected to be a year of strong growth, followed by a market downturn in 2026.

Many analysts anticipate that rising leverage and speculative capital will eventually trigger another correction.

Some warning signs are already emerging:

  1. Companies are aggressively raising capital to buy Bitcoin.
  2. Bitcoin-backed lending programs allow investors to borrow against their holdings without selling.
  3. Speculative activity is surging through derivatives, ETFs, and structured financial instruments.

Under normal circumstances, these trends would reinforce Bitcoin’s traditional boom-and-bust cycle. However, Matt Hougan believes that Trump’s executive order could fundamentally alter the market structure.

A clear regulatory framework could bring in a new wave of long-term investors, shifting Bitcoin’s perception from a highly speculative asset to a core financial instrument. If major banks start holding Bitcoin alongside traditional assets, the anticipated 2026 market downturn may not happen at all.

What’s Next for the Crypto Market?

The full impact of Trump’s executive order won’t be immediate. Regulatory frameworks will take time to develop, and financial institutions won’t adapt overnight.

But if 2025 marks the beginning of a long-term shift, is a market downturn in 2026 still inevitable?

According to Matt Hougan, the crypto market has matured significantly. Bitcoin is now held by governments, corporations, and institutional funds, making the market more resilient to sharp corrections.

While a pullback is still possible, Hougan believes it will likely be less severe and shorter-lived than in past cycles. If Wall Street and global regulators continue supporting crypto, 2026 may not bring another crypto winter at all.

For now, the takeaway is clear: the crypto bull market is far from over. And this time, it may not stop at all.

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise. - The Coinomist
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise.
Source: etfstream.com

Profile: Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise

Matt Hougan is a recognized expert in cryptocurrencies, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and financial technology.

As Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management—the world’s largest provider of crypto index funds, managing over $1.5 billion in assets—Hougan oversees investment strategy development and the creation of new financial products.

Before joining Bitwise, Hougan served as CEO of ETF.com and Inside ETFs, where he played a key role in developing the first-ever ETF analytics platform, launching a leading ETF-focused media outlet, and organizing the world’s largest ETF conference. 

Hougan also co-authored influential works for the CFA Institute Research Foundation, including:

  • “A Comprehensive Guide to Exchange-Traded Funds”
  • “Cryptoassets: The Guide to Bitcoin, Blockchain, and Cryptocurrencies for Professional Investors”

Through his expertise in digital assets and investment innovation, Matt Hougan continues to shape the future of financial technology, advocating for broader access to crypto investments and driving the next wave of financial evolution.

The content on The Coinomist is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. While we strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content. Neither we accept liability for any errors or omissions in the information provided or for any financial losses incurred as a result of relying on this information. Actions based on this content are at your own risk. Always do your own research and consult a professional. See our Terms, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers for more details.

Articles by this author

Latest News

MORE
Winklevoss Twins Consider IPO for Gemini Exchange

Winklevoss Twins Consider IPO for Gemini Exchange

The Winklevoss twins, Cameron and Tyler, are reportedly considering an initial public offering (IPO) for their cryptocurrency exchange, Gemini. If successful, this move would place Gemini among the growing list of crypto companies entering public markets.

09 Feb 2025
Trump Jr. States That Crypto Is America’s Path to Global Dominance

Trump Jr. States That Crypto Is America’s Path to Global Dominance

The crypto community has taken notice of Donald Trump Jr.’s latest remarks. Speaking at the Ondo Finance Summit in New York, he asserted that cryptocurrencies will play a crucial role in maintaining America’s global economic leadership.

07 Feb 2025
Rep. Green Criticizes TRUMP Coin at Congress Hearing

Rep. Green Criticizes TRUMP Coin at Congress Hearing

On February 6, the U.S. House Financial Services Committee held a hearing entitled “Operation Choke Point 2.0: The Biden Administration’s Effort to Put Crypto in the Crosshairs.”

07 Feb 2025
NFL Rivals Expands Web3 Gaming With Super Bowl NFT Cards

NFL Rivals Expands Web3 Gaming With Super Bowl NFT Cards

NFL Rivals, the blockchain-powered football game from Mythical Games, is rolling out a special in-game event to celebrate the biggest football showdown of the year.

07 Feb 2025

Latest News Alt

MORE
Weekly Analysis of BTC, ETH, and the Stock Market (Jan 27, 2025)

Weekly Analysis of BTC, ETH, and the Stock Market (Jan 27, 2025)

An overview of BTC, ETH, XAUT, and S&P500 charts, and the current cryptocurrency market dynamics.

27 Jan 2025
Weekly Analysis of BTC, ETH, and the Stock Market (Jan 13, 2025)

Weekly Analysis of BTC, ETH, and the Stock Market (Jan 13, 2025)

An overview of BTC, ETH, XAUT, and S&P500 charts, and the current cryptocurrency market dynamics.

13 Jan 2025
Weekly Analysis of BTC, ETH, and the Stock Market (Jan 6, 2025)

Weekly Analysis of BTC, ETH, and the Stock Market (Jan 6, 2025)

An overview of BTC, ETH, XAUT, and S&P500 charts, along with the current cryptocurrency market dynamics.

06 Jan 2025

Might Be Interesting

MORE
How Blockchain Helps Combat Disinformation

How Blockchain Helps Combat Disinformation

Fake news has become a global issue, shaping public opinion, fueling social tensions, and even influencing political decisions. With the rise of social media, the spread of misinformation has accelerated, making it increasingly difficult to regulate. However, blockchain technology offers a promising solution in the fight against fake news.

07 Feb 2025
Trading Psychology: How to Avoid Falling Victim to Your Own Biases

Trading Psychology: How to Avoid Falling Victim to Your Own Biases

The most successful traders aren’t always the smartest. More often, those who excel are the ones who understand psychological traps, manage their emotions, and maintain rationality under pressure.

03 Feb 2025
Liquidity Pools — The Engine Driving DeFi

Liquidity Pools — The Engine Driving DeFi

Liquidity pools fuel DeFi by enabling instant token swaps, but what exactly are they? These crowdsourced reserves make decentralized trading possible—but they also come with risks. Here’s what you need to know before diving in.

31 Jan 2025
Bitcoin Name Service — Making Web3 Addresses Easier to Read

Bitcoin Name Service — Making Web3 Addresses Easier to Read

As the Bitcoin blockchain evolves, new opportunities are emerging for users to interact with DEX technologies. One of the major advancements is the Bitcoin Name Service (BNS)—a protocol that replaces complex web3 addresses with names that are easy for humans to understand.

29 Jan 2025
How to Withdraw Bitcoin from PayPal: A Step-by-Step Guide

How to Withdraw Bitcoin from PayPal: A Step-by-Step Guide

PayPal is one of the most popular online payment platforms. In 2022, it introduced features that allow users to transact with cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC). However, withdrawing crypto from PayPal is not as straightforward as transferring fiat funds. This guide will walk you through the process of withdrawing Bitcoin from PayPal.

29 Jan 2025
Crypto Wallet Backups: Are You Truly Ready for Self-Custody?

Crypto Wallet Backups: Are You Truly Ready for Self-Custody?

Being your own bank is one of the great perks of crypto. It’s perfect for those who want extra security or believe in decentralization. But self-custody isn’t exactly a walk in the park – you’ve got to master the art of backups because you’re the only one responsible for your assets.

28 Jan 2025

Opinions

Super Bowl Bets Under Fire: CFTC Probes Kalshi and Crypto.com

Super Bowl Bets Under Fire: CFTC Probes Kalshi and Crypto.com

The Super Bowl, the largest sporting event in the US, has more to it than just the competition. The exciting show and, of course, commercials and bets are a big part of it, too. The winner will become known as early as tomorrow. Not everything always goes smoothly, though.

08 Feb 2025
Arthur Hayes — Is Trump’s Crypto Policy Setting a Trap?

Arthur Hayes — Is Trump’s Crypto Policy Setting a Trap?

Arthur Hayes, in The Genie, argues that Trump’s crypto agenda might not be what it seems. Could regulatory changes lead to unexpected consequences? Read our full breakdown.

07 Feb 2025
MORE

Interviews

“Satoshi is CIA”: Swedish crypto bro opens up about his Bitcoin journey

“Satoshi is CIA”: Swedish crypto bro opens up about his Bitcoin journey

The first crypto craze took place almost a decade ago. Overnight, many people found out about Bitcoin and its underlying technology, blockchain.

31 Jan 2025
Dmytro Gordon and Volodymyr Nosov: A Sensational Interview

Dmytro Gordon and Volodymyr Nosov: A Sensational Interview

Volodymyr Nosov, CEO of Europe’s largest crypto exchange WhiteBIT, sat down with Dmytro Gordon, one of Ukraine’s most prominent journalists. The interview touched on Bitcoin, crypto, WhiteBIT, cars, keys to success, and business vision.

18 Dec 2024
MORE