The Bitcoin Kid’s 2011 Prediction – How Right Was He? 

It was the early years of Bitcoin, which was officially launched on January 3, 2009. 

On the channel techpodusa, the teenager who discovered Bitcoin shared his thoughts. Recently, crypto Twitter rediscovered the video. There have been a number of posts mentioning the young Bitcoin predictor, who is often referred to as the “First Bitcoin Kid.” 

The community managed to identify the Bitcoin kid, whose real name is Tom Lapsing. 

Now in his 20s, Tom looked back at his prediction, analyzing what he got right and where he was mistaken. 

Tom Lapsing Reflects on His Early Bitcoin Prediction

The video Tom uploaded on YouTube as a kid is named BitCoins: What Are They? In the video, young Tom explains clearly that Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer virtual currency and that no central authority issues more coins or tracks transactions. Instead, the network manages these tasks.

Tom mentioned that BTC is used as money and listed some websites where the coin was accepted. When the video was uploaded, Bitcoin traded at around $8.

Next in his video, Tom told viewers about Bitcoin mining, a process that handles the issuance of new coins and validates transactions.

An interesting part of the video is when Tom calls Bitcoin a “really neat idea” but speculates that it won’t last long because governments will try to shut it down. He believed they wouldn’t want people exchanging their currency for a virtual one.

He also mentioned the possibility of Bitcoin being a hoax. For example, he imagined a scenario where, after a certain number of Bitcoins were purchased, all websites accepting it would suddenly reject it. This way, Bitcoin’s creator would have made a lot of money while everyone else would be left with useless files.

You can try to invest in it. It may be one of the best investments you’ll ever make or it may be one of the worst,

– 12-year-old Tom concluded. 

In a follow-up video from early February 2025, Tom reflects on how spot-on some of his childhood predictions were. He got several technical aspects right, including decentralization, mining, and halving. Tom credits this accuracy to Bitcoin.org, an early source of Bitcoin information.

Talking about his younger self, Tom said he could have provided more context on how Bitcoin works and added more colorful commentary.

However, as many comments note, the original video and Tom’s knowledge of BTC at such a young age left people impressed.

Tom stands by his assessment that Bitcoin can be one of the best or worst investments. He acknowledges that, while Bitcoin hasn’t fully replaced government-issued money as he once predicted, El Salvador made it legal tender in September 2021.

Looking back, Tom admits his assumptions that BTC wouldn’t last or might have been a hoax were wrong. He pointed out that while some countries, like China, have banned Bitcoin, more nations are leaning toward regulation rather than prohibition.

Tom says that in 2025, Bitcoin is more popular than ever, fueled by the rise of investment products and institutional demand.

The third blunder Tom mentions is using Mt. Gox as an example of a crypto exchange for buying Bitcoin. While Mt. Gox was a major exchange in 2011, it collapsed three years later, and the user fund recovery process is still ongoing.

“Don’t take advice from middle schoolers”- Tom jokingly said at the end of his video. 

Someone Created a TPU Memecoin and Sent 13 M Tokens to Tom 

On his X account, Tom shared that someone created a First Bitcoin Kid (TPU) memecoin based on his old video and sent him 13 million tokens. The “TPU” in the name comes from his YouTube channel, TechPodUSA.

While thanking the community, Tom clarified in a post that he isn’t involved in the project. The tokens he received are locked for six months, meaning he won’t be able to access or trade them until then.

Tom noted that just a month ago, TechPodUSA had only seven subscribers, and the video had around 1,000 views. He had forgotten about his 2011 video until the community rediscovered it, pushing its view count to 30,000.

After launch, TPU lost most of its value. According to CoinGecko, the coin currently trades at around $0.0002503, down 92.8% from its all-time high of $0.003 on February 6, 2025.