What is the future of Bitcoin miners in 2023?

Miners used to earn about 22 cents per terahash per day before the cryptocurrency market crashed in May 2022, but this figure has now dropped to 7. This has resulted in a significant decrease in the price of equipment, making it very appealing to large capital investors.

The average price of an ASIC miner Source: Hashrateindex.com

In other words, it is designed so that large miners can keep expanding their computing power and lowering their average cost, while weaker miners are forced to leave the game because they are unable to compete with them. High loan interest rates, which arose as a result of the US Federal Reserve System's attempts to slow inflation, play a significant role in this. 

Miners' challenges

Each year, new players join the market who can afford to acquire more effective computing power, thus increasing the overall hashrate of the Bitcoin network. This is a problem for smaller miners whose equipment has not yet paid them back.

Bitcoin mining ASICs with hashrates of more than 100 TH/s went on sale in the summer of 2021, and even newer equipment that doubled this figure appeared in the first half of 2022. For certain modern models, bitcoin must be worth more than $15,000 for this business to be profitable.

Release date of new bitcoin mining ASICs and their power efficiency Source: Hashrateindex.com

However, it appears that equipment manufacturers have reached a certain limit in their use of modern technologies. The most recent Bitmain models have 5-nanometer chips, and if their size is reduced even further, their cost (as well as the number of defects) will skyrocket. In general, this is a problem for many electronics manufacturers, as improving chip energy efficiency becomes increasingly difficult. 

Bitmain specifications Source: MinerDaily

Thus, the bitcoin halving, which will take place in the spring of 2024, poses a more significant threat to miners. This means that miners will receive half the amount of coins for each mined block, resulting in a significant loss of income.

Will 2023 be a profitable year for miners?

Let's sum up. Regardless of the state of the cryptocurrency market, the hashrate of the Bitcoin network is increasing. In other words, mining bitcoin is becoming increasingly difficult. Large capital players dominate this market because they can add new, more efficient equipment and also choose not to sell bitcoins when it is not profitable.

Average weekly bitcoin network hash rate Source: Glassnode

The cryptocurrency market's rise, which is already underway, may make life easier for miners. In theory, this can level out the reduction of the rewards after the halving, but whether the positive trend will continue until the next halving is unknown. Hence, it is important to not just rely on a high BTC price but also consider all the associated risks.