Solana in March: A Cooldown or the Calm Before the Surge?

March opened with Solana riding a wave of momentum: sleek infrastructure, cheap transactions, and a thriving community.

But as the month closed, the numbers told a different story:

• Real Economic Value collapsed by 64%;
• DeFi apps saw profits shrink by 62%;
• DEX trading activity halved, down 50%.

Pretty much everything was down—across apps, volumes, and revenue.

The one bright spot? Stablecoins. Their circulating supply jumped 8.5%, setting a new historical record. But that was the only green in a sea of red.

Solana’s March Report Card: Painful Numbers, Steady Footing

Zooming in on March, Solana’s Real Economic Value tumbled to $71 million—a 64% decline that led the global downturn.

Its share of the REV drop hit 34%, higher than Tron’s 25% and Ethereum’s 18%.

So while activity is cooling, Solana’s foothold in the broader market remains firm.

Yes, application revenue took a hit—$131 million, down 62% from the previous month. But numbers alone don’t tell the full story. Solana, even amid contraction, remains the most lucrative chain for decentralized applications, topping the charts in a field that’s still evolving.

Starting June 2024, Solana-based dApps have consistently out-earned validators and token holders, highlighting a shift in economic incentives. This trend points to Solana’s evolution into a platform where launching scalable, profitable applications is increasingly viable.

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Simultaneously, total DEX trading plunged to $97 billion—down 50% from February. Notably, meme coins made up 48% of the volume, and the SOL-USD pair contributed another 37%.

The volatility on Solana’s DEXs stems from structural dynamics: speculative trading drives rapid price increases, followed by equally sharp declines.

Stablecoins emerged as a clear outlier on Solana’s blockchain last month.

Their total supply rose to $12.2 billion, marking an 8.5% gain—the highest ever recorded.

• USDC supply grew by $620 million;
• USDT increased by $350 million.

As broader market activity contracted, stablecoins remained a pillar of consistent growth.

March delivered widespread pullbacks across Solana’s ecosystem—except in one category. That singular area of growth could point to where the market is headed next.

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Earnings Shift on Solana: dApps Now Outpace Validators

March may seem like a downturn, but beneath the surface, something more profound is happening. Solana’s economy is evolving—not just in volume, but in value distribution.

For the first time, decentralized applications are out-earning the validators and core infrastructure. It’s a reversal of the usual blockchain order, and it could reshape what success looks like in this ecosystem.

Unlike most blockchain networks, Solana’s revenue dynamics have shifted. Since June 2024, dApps have consistently out-earned validators and delegators. 

• In March, application revenue hit a record: $1.84 for every $1 of REV.

This points to a fundamental shift: Solana is becoming less about speed and more about sustainable application-level profitability.

There’s a caveat worth noting. 

Roughly 50% of Solana’s DEX volume came from meme coin trades. While that may boost headline numbers, it raises red flags for long-term stability.

Speculative trading tends to inflate markets rapidly—and exit just as quickly, often leaving behind a liquidity void.

Solana’s internal dynamics are telling. It’s not just about the number of transactions anymore—it’s about where the value lands, and in what format. The network is maturing into a platform economy, where decentralized applications—not infrastructure—carry the weight of economic value.

Sentiment Watch: Stress Builds, ETF Buzz Grows

Investor sentiment was already fraying as March began, following a brutal February in which SOL dropped 36%. That decline unleashed a wave of forced sales and revived long-standing concerns over insider trading.

Focus soon centered on two key players—Binance and Wintermute—both of whom moved significant SOL holdings during moments of acute volatility, prompting renewed scrutiny over their potential role in price swings.

For many, these transfers didn’t just read as exits—they felt like omens. The revelation that some SOL was moved to exchanges before the slide only sharpened suspicions of someone being one step ahead.

Still, the mood isn’t entirely bleak. Hopes for a Solana spot ETF—led by names like VanEck and Grayscale—remain strong. If approved, it could offer the narrative shift Solana needs: renewed institutional interest and a bullish revival.

So far, it’s all smoke—ETF speculation without substance. No dates, no filings, just buzz.

That’s what made March so unique: it wasn’t only about price drops. It became a psychological battleground, where fear and figures moved in sync.

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Where Next for SOL? Solana’s Three Scenarios for 2025

Solana is a study in contrast: impressive technology, inconsistent market behavior. This duality has made it a favorite for both optimists and critics.

Looking toward 2025, analysts have mapped out three primary scenarios—each reflecting a different take on what’s next for the SOL price.

Bullish Outlook: $380–$520 Potential for SOL

Supporters of the bullish case argue that Solana could see a dramatic upswing if multiple factors align:

• Approval and launch of a Solana ETF (VanEck or Grayscale);
• Renewed growth in DeFi and DEX sectors;
• Prolonged meme coin-driven engagement;
• Stronger institutional inflows into the ecosystem.

VanEck forecasts a $520 target, contingent on Solana capturing 22% of the smart contract market—up from its current 15%.

VanEck highlights three key Solana strengths that could drive long-term adoption and price growth:

• Consistently high developer activity,
• Competitive, low-cost transaction fees,
• And a robust, expanding ecosystem of dApps and infrastructure.

Bearish Forecast: Could SOL Slide Back to $50?

Not everyone’s convinced Solana will bounce back. Bears lean on three major red flags:

• Technical hiccups—remember those infamous outages from 2021 and 2022?
• Growing dominance of Ethereum and its Layer-2 stack, including the rise of ETH restaking services and composable, modular chains;
• And then there’s the macro mess: high rates, SEC heat, and less money flowing into crypto.

Should negative sentiment continue to build, Solana risks falling below $100 and entering a prolonged lower range.

Some bearish analysts even identify $50 as a potential bottom, particularly in the event of a deep, systemic crypto downturn.

Middle of the Road: SOL Likely to Hover Around $100–$250

In the absence of strong bullish catalysts or severe bearish shocks, the neutral case dominates Solana’s 2025 outlook.

The protocol remains operationally strong, but growth plateaus without major narrative fuel.

The $100–$250 range marks a logical equilibrium—accessible to retail participants, but lacking the conviction needed to bring in institutional inflows without structural changes like ETF approvals or regulatory clarity.

Current Solana Snapshot: Operational Strength with Clear Market Signals

Solana’s still one of the best-performing blockchains out there—by the numbers, not just the buzz.

It leads in:

• transaction throughput,
• minimal transaction costs,
• and steady dApp revenue flow.

And in certain categories—such as REV and its share of application revenue—Solana isn’t sharing the podium. It owns it.

February and March reminded everyone that hype has a half-life. Solana’s metrics took a hit. Large holders trimmed their positions. Confidence wavered.

But this isn’t failure—it’s a reality check. The network still holds immense promise. The test now is whether it can move from potential to proof—from meme-fueled rallies to substance-driven growth.

Solana hasn’t stumbled, but it hasn’t soared either. And as always, it won’t be judged by speed, but by what developers and users actually build.