Weekly Analysis of BTC, ETH, and the Stock Market (18.11.2024)
An overview of BTC, ETH, XAUT, and S&P500 charts, and the current cryptocurrency market dynamics.
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Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin remains in a strong upward trend, steadily reaching new highs. The current ATH of $93,225, set last week, stands as the sole resistance level for now.
Since Bitcoin has never been at these price levels, no defined seller zones exist above this mark. However, profit-taking is expected, making corrections inevitable.
Additionally, the psychological milestone of $100,000 may not be breached on the first attempt due to heightened market activity and cautious trading sentiment.
Key zones for long positions and spot accumulation are $85,800–$87,600 and $82,400–$84,200.
BTC/USDT 2 Chart
Ethereum (ETH)
Ethereum's growth has been slower than Bitcoin's and, for many ETH holders, slower than expected. The asset is currently trading within a range, with support at $3,000–$3,060 and resistance at $3,180–$3,240.
If Bitcoin continues its upward momentum, Ethereum buyers could sustain a similar trend, with the next target at $3,442.
Ethereum’s potential for faster growth hinges on the long-awaited altcoin season, which could start at any moment. With no significant negative market factors currently at play, Ethereum remains poised for a breakout.
ETH/USDT H2 Chart
S&P 500 (SPX)
The most popular stock index set a new historical high at $6,017 last week before undergoing a slight correction. As noted in previous analyses, the range of $5,600–$5,700 provided strong support, enabling investors to strengthen their positions ahead of a likely continuation of the upward movement.
Where could the next correction target be?
The $5,800 support level appears to be a reasonable target. Given that the S&P 500 remains within an ascending channel, a drop below this level currently seems unlikely.
SPX W1 Chart
Tether Gold (XAUT)
The price of gold has finally entered the anticipated correction phase, with the asset testing the $2,510–$2,560 support zone last week.
Interestingly, the XAUT chart shows an inverse correlation with Bitcoin. This means that as Bitcoin rises, gold tends to decline. This relationship may stem from investors reallocating profits into “crypto gold” as a hedge.
If XAUT fails to break through the $2,660–$2,710 range soon, the correction could deepen to the $2,462 and $2,402 support levels.
XAUT/USDT D1 Chart
BTC Dominance, Altcoin Season Index, and Fear and Greed Index
Despite significant altcoin growth (notably in the meme category), BTC dominance remains consistently high, holding above 60%. This indicates that investors are still prioritizing Bitcoin over alternative cryptocurrencies, favoring either “quick” assets or maintaining loyalty to Bitcoin.
BTC Dominance Index. Source: tradingview.com
The Altcoin Season Index stands at 39 points, reinforcing the dominance narrative. Altcoins are still showing relatively slow growth, reflecting a lack of strong investor interest in this category of assets.
Altcoin Season Index. Source: blockchaincenter.net
Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index has reached one of its highest levels in the past year: 83 points, signaling “Extreme Greed.” This excitement has been fueled by the impressive rally in meme projects following Trump's election victory and Elon Musk's provocative tweets.
Fear and Greed Index. Source: alternative.me
Economic News
Key updates in the macroeconomic sector include:
- U.S. crude oil inventory data (Wednesday, November 20)
- Initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, and U.S. existing home sales (Thursday, November 21)
- U.S. manufacturing PMI and services PMI (Friday, November 22).
No major events are expected this week, so these updates are unlikely to have a significant impact on cryptocurrency markets.
Check out The Coinomist for the latest cryptocurrency rates and chart analysis.
Disclaimer
Please note that the analysis provided above should not be considered a trading recommendation. Before opening any deals, we strongly advise conducting your own research and analysis.
Abbreviations
TF (Timeframe) — a chronological period equal to the time it takes to form one Japanese candle on the chart.
Horizontal channel (flat, sideways, range) — the price movement between support and resistance levels, without going beyond the given range.
К — simplified designation of one thousand dollars of the asset price (for example, 23.4K – $23,400).
Gray range on the chart — a support zone.
Red range on the chart — a resistance zone.
Correlation — the tendency of prices of different cryptocurrencies to move in sync, often influenced by the dominance of one of the assets.
Initial materials
This analysis was informed by the following educational materials and articles from The Coinomist:
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