Weekly Analysis of BTC, ETH, and the Stock Market (Feb 3, 2025)
An overview of BTC, ETH, XAUT, and S&P500 charts, and the current cryptocurrency market dynamics.
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Bitcoin (BTC)
The cryptocurrency market has faced a sharp correction over the past three days. Bitcoin (BTC) hit a new local low of $91,350 yesterday, marking a 13% decline since January 31.
The drop was driven by U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies, particularly the new tariffs imposed on Canada, Mexico, and China. In response, these countries announced retaliatory measures, heightening concerns over a potential trade war, which triggered a negative reaction in the market.
Currently, BTC is trading within a key support zone of $91,500–$93,700, with resistance at $99,100–$100,500. The market's next move will depend on how Bitcoin reacts to these levels in the coming days.
If BTC rebounds, it could retest the $105,800–$109,400 resistance zone, potentially paving the way for a new all-time high. If BTC breaks below $91,350, the correction could deepen, possibly driving the price down to $90,000 or lower.
Ethereum (ETH)
Ethereum, like most altcoins, suffered a sharp decline amid the broader crypto market downturn. Yesterday alone, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap plunged 28%, with its price briefly dipping below $1,800 on some exchanges.
Given Ethereum’s strong correlation with Bitcoin, its future price action remains largely dependent on BTC’s movements. Currently, ETH is trading within a support range of $2,420–$2,500 and facing resistance at $2,930–$3,100. To approach the next key selling zone, buyers need to push ETH above $2,750.
With no significant bullish momentum in the market, a continued correction appears to be the most probable outcome. If the decline persists, ETH could test the $2,100 level as its next major support.
S&P 500 (SPX)
While the S&P 500 has yet to experience a sharp decline, this could change once the U.S. stock market opens. Currently, the index remains in an upward trading channel, with no deep corrections so far.
However, given the latest trade policies introduced by the U.S. administration, a negative market opening appears likely. If selling pressure intensifies, SPX could drop toward the $5,600–$5,800 support zone, which may present an opportunity for long positions and spot accumulation.
Tether Gold (XAUT)
Gold remains one of the few assets unaffected by the ongoing crypto market downturn, trade tensions, political instability, and stock market fluctuations. Over the past week, gold prices have steadily climbed, reaching a new ATH. However, its crypto-backed equivalent, Tether Gold (XAUT), has yet to surpass its ATH, despite briefly hitting $2,823.
Given the strong bullish trend in the gold market, further gains and potential new highs for XAUT seem likely. For those looking for buying opportunities, key support levels to monitor are $2,636 and the $2,510–$2,560 range, should a short-term pullback occur.
BTC Dominance, Altcoin Season Index, Fear and Greed Index
Yesterday, Bitcoin’s dominance index surged to a three-year high of 64.33% before slightly pulling back to its current level of 61.75%. The recent market downturn has hit altcoins particularly hard, and their recovery may take some time.
The Altcoin Season Index currently stands at 51, signaling a neutral market with no clear shift toward altcoins. With investors increasingly prioritizing Bitcoin, the chances of an altсoin season emerging anytime soon remain low.
The Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 44, pushing sentiment into the “Fear” category for the first time in months. Investors reacted negatively to yesterday’s decline, further shaking confidence in the crypto market.
Key Economic Updates
The macroeconomic landscape this week will be shaped by several important reports:
- Manufacturing PMI (Monday, February 3)
- JOLTS Job Openings Report (Tuesday, February 4)
- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Services PMI, and Crude Oil Inventory Data (Wednesday, February 5)
- Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday, February 6)
- U.S. Average Hourly Earnings, BLS Non-Farm Payrolls Report, and Unemployment Rate (Friday, February 7)
With Bitcoin’s recent market downturn, these economic indicators could have a significant impact on the crypto market, adding to the overall uncertainty and volatility.
Check out The Coinomist for the latest cryptocurrency rates and chart analysis.
Disclaimer
Please note that the analysis provided above should not be considered a trading recommendation. Before opening any deals, we strongly advise conducting your own research and analysis.
Abbreviations
TF (Timeframe) — a chronological period equal to the time it takes to form one Japanese candle on the chart.
Horizontal channel (flat, sideways, range) — the price movement between support and resistance levels, without going beyond the given range.
К — simplified designation of one thousand dollars of the asset price (for example, 23.4K – $23,400).
Gray range on the chart — a support zone.
Red range on the chart — a resistance zone.
Correlation — the tendency of prices of different cryptocurrencies to move in sync, often influenced by the dominance of one of the assets.
Initial materials
This analysis was informed by the following educational materials and articles from The Coinomist:
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