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Polygon has used a quote from Nobel laureate Niels Bohr to depict the crypto industry’s state of affairs. The firm underscores that regulators should not depend entirely on forecasts regarding new technologies advancement, as they may prove inaccurate.
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Blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies are facing resistance and neglect from the American establishment. Politicians and regulators react sharply. However, opposition to new technologies is not unique.
Polygon reminds us of the technology adoption lifecycle theory, which consists of three stages.
1. The early market phase, where innovators create and introduce a The early market phase, where innovators create and introduce a new technology to the market. Only a limited number of buyers are willing to try it out.
2. The “chasm” phase, where conservatives object to the new technology and attempt to prevent its further adoption. Arguments are made about its perceived lack of value and potential harm.
3. Mainstream phase, when the number of users significantly increases, with even conservative users becoming part of the trend. This makes the new technology an everyday product.
Blockchain technology is entering its second phase of implementation. But sadly, crossing the “chasm” can often feel impossible. Polygon gives us a glimpse into the fierce criticism the inventors of the automobile, telephone, and electric light bulb inventors endured. It just proves that even the most groundbreaking ideas can face immense resistance before being widely accepted.
“The horse is here to stay, but the automobile is only a novelty – a fad”, said the president of the Michigan Savings Bank as he tried to discourage Henry Ford from investing in Ford Motor Company.
“The lightbulb is suitable for our transatlantic colleagues… but not deserving of the attention of practical or scientific individuals”, argued members of a British Parliament Committee.
“These fanciful predictions speaking about the benefits of the telephone… are based on wild-eyed imagination and lack of understanding of the technical and economic facts of the situation, and a posture of ignoring the obvious limitations of his device, which is hardly more than a toy”, insisted William Orton, the president of Western Union.
Despite the naysayers and their lack of foresight, the automobile, light bulb, and telephone proved them wrong and drove straight into our hearts and homes. They paved the way for new horizons and showed us that even the most brilliant minds can sometimes miss the mark. Yet they too had to weather their “chasm” phases. “There's no chance the iPhone will get any significant market share,” declared former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer 16 years ago.
Looking back at the history of technology implementation, it's clear that even the most prominent “prophets” of their time have been wrong in predicting which technologies would succeed and which would fail in the market. Innovators of the past had to endure the same kind of skepticism surrounding digital assets. For example, both the IMF and the Biden administration doubt cryptocurrencies' “fundamental value”.
Rebecca Rettig, Chief Policy Officer at Polygon, emphasizes that regulators shouldn't just play it safe by trying to preserve the status quo and bolstering the positions of the same old players. Instead, they need to come up with clear-cut engagement rules that foster innovation and shield investors and the market from harm. To wrap things up, Rettig offers a quote from Brandon Possin, a digital asset investor and foreign service officer at the US embassy in Tokyo.
I have a warning for them: Too many inside government are clinging to the past… We need more technologists, fewer lawyers, and less bias in favor of financial sector incumbents
warns the diplomatic officer.
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