Trump’s “Whale” on Polymarket Found to Be a French Citizen
A trader who wagered $45 million on Trump’s victory on Polymarket recently caught the community’s attention. Conspiracy theorists wasted no time in assuming he was part of Trump’s campaign, but in reality, the bettor was just a regular user from France.
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A trader who wagered $45 million on Trump’s victory on Polymarket recently caught the community’s attention. Conspiracy theorists wasted no time in assuming he was part of Trump’s campaign, but in reality, the bettor was just a regular user from France.
Polymarket's own investigation brought this to light.
The trader was associated with four accounts: Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie, all of which, according to Polymarket, belong to a French citizen with significant expertise in trading and the financial sector.
ТTop Polymarket Bet Holders for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Source: polymarket.com
Polymarket found no evidence suggesting any attempt to manipulate the market. Instead, the project team explained that the trader had a clear, focused position, driven by personal beliefs and preferences.
The trader’s unusual behavior was simply an effort to place a large bet in a safe and efficient manner.
Recognizing that a single large order could skew the price, the trader from France decided to split it into smaller parts spread across four accounts.
Polymarket added that the individual agreed to notify them before opening any additional accounts.
At the time of this writing, Polymarket is the largest blockchain-based prediction market, with over $2 billion in trades on the 2024 U.S. presidential election result.
Winning Odds for Trump and Harris in the 2024 U.S. Election. Source: polymarket.com
Interestingly, the price dynamics for the U.S. presidential election contracts mirror those on other platforms. Polymarket suggests a 60% chance of Trump winning, while Kalshi predicts 58%, and PredictIt sets the odds at 57%.
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