VanEck’s Vision for Crypto in 2025 — 10 Predictions

With a wealth of experience in financial markets, VanEck’s analysts have taken a confident stance, forecasting not only emerging trends but also critical market developments.

2025 Crypto Market: Peaks and Corrections

VanEck forecasts that the strong upward trajectory seen in the cryptocurrency market during the second half of this year will continue into 2025.

Their projections indicate a mid-term peak in Q1, with Bitcoin reaching an impressive $180,000 and Ethereum crossing the $6,000 mark. Prominent altcoins are also expected to rise, with Solana projected to hit $500 and Sui forecasted to reach $10.

A dramatic correction is likely to follow such a strong market rally. Predictions indicate Bitcoin may fall by 30% from its peak over the summer, while altcoins could suffer declines of up to 60% from their Q1 2025 values. This consolidation period is expected to span the summer but won’t be prolonged. Summer stagnation is a common occurrence in markets, largely driven by reduced liquidity during vacation seasons and banking holidays.

The market recovery is forecasted to take shape in the fall, with leading tokens regaining their upward trajectory. Although exact figures are not provided, the company expects prices to stabilize at or near the record levels seen in Q1.

Crypto-Friendly Leadership and Bitcoin Adoption Surge

Trump’s presidency has breathed new life into the cryptocurrency sector. The inclusion of crypto advocates in his administration signals the potential end of regulatory hostility towards the industry. This pro-crypto shift is likely to enhance Bitcoin’s standing as a state-level strategic asset.

The Evolution of Crypto ETPs and Regulatory Progress

VanEck foresees the U.S. approving several spot crypto ETPs, including one for Solana. Ethereum ETPs are expected to feature staking capabilities, increasing their attractiveness to investors. In addition, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs will offer in-kind creation and redemption options, making direct crypto transactions more accessible.

In financial terms, “in-kind” means transactions are completed using assets rather than cash. This allows investors to create or redeem shares in these ETPs by directly transferring or receiving cryptocurrency instead of relying on fiat currency.

Consider the following:

• In-kind creation: Purchasing ETP shares allows you to use an equivalent amount of Bitcoin or Ether rather than cash.
• In-kind redemption: Selling shares gives you the option to receive an equivalent value in cryptocurrency instead of fiat currency.

This setup is particularly favorable for institutional investors, as it minimizes extra costs such as those incurred during fiat conversion.

Efforts to reform regulations, including the possible revocation of SEC rule SAB 121 by Congress or the SEC itself, would permit banks and brokers to handle custody of spot cryptocurrencies. This move could accelerate the adoption of digital assets within traditional finance.

SAB 121, issued in April 2022, created additional barriers for financial institutions managing crypto custody. In spring 2024, Congress voted to repeal the rule, but the initiative was vetoed by President Biden, leaving the regulation in place.

Bitcoin Reserves: A Turning Point for Government Adoption

In 2025, the formation of strategic Bitcoin reserves is expected to take center stage, potentially on a federal scale or through state-level initiatives. VanEck highlights Pennsylvania, Florida, and Texas as likely trailblazers.

At the federal level, this could involve a presidential executive order activating the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF).

States might act independently, employing Bitcoin to shield against fiscal uncertainties or to stimulate investment and innovation within the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

Worldwide Bitcoin mining efforts are anticipated to expand, with the number of nations employing government resources for mining potentially climbing into double digits. Presently, this includes eight countries: Bhutan, Iran, El Salvador, UAE, Oman, Ethiopia, Argentina, and Kenya.

Government Bitcoin Mining Initiatives. Source: VanEck

U.S. to Cement Its Leadership in Crypto

The U.S. is poised to bolster its role as a leader in the global crypto economy. Projections indicate that the percentage of crypto development firms headquartered in the U.S. will increase from 19% to 25%.

Key growth catalysts will include more flexible and inclusive regulatory policies, alongside initiatives aimed at energizing the crypto economy.

By 2025, the U.S. is anticipated to raise its share of the global Bitcoin hash rate from the current 28% to 35%, aided by low electricity costs and advantageous tax regimes.

U.S. Dominance in Bitcoin Hash Rate Growth. Source: VanEck

Accelerating Corporate Adoption of Bitcoin

VanEck forecasts a parallel trend of sovereign and corporate Bitcoin adoption, with more private and public companies joining the ranks of BTC holders.

Analysts predict the number of corporate entities reserving Bitcoin will rise to roughly 100 by late 2025, an increase from the current 68, which together control 765,000 BTC.

Corporate Bitcoin reserves are projected to exceed 1.1 million BTC by next year, overtaking the mythical holdings linked to Satoshi Nakamoto. This marks a 43% growth compared to November 2024.

Gold vs Bitcoin: Prospects for Governments and Corporations. Source: VanEck

The Future of Tokenized Securities: $50 Billion Milestone Ahead

Tokenized securities are at the forefront of innovation in the financial system, boasting key benefits such as improved efficiency, decentralization, and transparency.

VanEck predicts that their collective value will climb past $50 billion in 2025, a significant increase from their current market cap of approximately $12 billion.

A substantial portion of this figure (around $9.5 billion) is represented by tokenized private credit securities issued on the partially restricted Provenance blockchain.

On-chain Securities Grew by 61% in 2024. Source: VanEck

Public blockchains are positioned to lead the future of tokenized securities, as investors prefer the transparency and efficiency they offer for issuing equities and debt. Platforms like Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) will act as bridges, allowing tokenized assets to transition seamlessly between public and private blockchain ecosystems.  

Daily Stablecoin Transactions to Triple by 2025

Daily transaction volumes for stablecoins are expected to surge to $300 billion by 2025, tripling the current levels of approximately $100 billion recorded in late 2024.

Integration by tech leaders like Apple and Google, paired with support from payment giants Visa and Mastercard, will transform payment infrastructure globally. This shift will slash transaction costs and boost speeds, positioning stablecoins as an integral part of global trade systems.  

One promising use case for stablecoins is in cross-border remittances. Transfers between the U.S. and Mexico could see a dramatic increase, rising from $80 million to $400 million per month. The reasons? Reduced fees, accelerated transaction speeds, and a growing trust in stablecoins as a practical, everyday solution.

It’s no wonder stablecoins are called the “Trojan horse” of blockchain, seamlessly introducing that technology to mainstream users.

The reasons are clear:

• Familiarity: Stablecoins are tied to well-known currencies like the U.S. dollar, making them easy to understand and adopt.
• Convenience: They offer practical benefits, including lightning-fast transfers, low transaction costs, and the ability to send money internationally almost instantly.
• Widespread adoption: Companies like Visa, Mastercard, and major tech firms are integrating stablecoins into their payment systems, introducing users to blockchain technology without requiring them to navigate crypto-specific platforms.
• A blockchain gateway: Through stablecoin use, individuals begin interacting with blockchain networks, often sparking interest in DeFi, tokenized assets, or other cryptocurrencies.

Stablecoins simplify access to blockchain by acting as a gateway, sparing users the need to confront the complexities of crypto right away. As they take on a larger role in the global economy, they have the potential to reshape international money transfers.  

The Era of AI Blockchain Agents: 1 Million and Counting

By 2025, AI agents will redefine blockchain technology, autonomously managing tasks like maximizing DeFi yields or driving interaction on platforms like X/Twitter. Their capability to adapt strategies on their own makes them indispensable across industries.

Protocols like Virtuals specialize in equipping users to design custom blockchain agents. By linking users with decentralized services such as data suppliers and AI model developers, Virtuals facilitates agent creation. These agents, once developed, can be rented out, offering a unique revenue opportunity for their creators.

AI Blockchain Agents Generate $8.7M in 5 Weeks. Source: VanEck

DeFi may currently dominate the use of AI agents, but their reach is rapidly expanding. They are being adopted in gaming (as virtual characters), social media (as influencers), and consumer apps, where they serve as interactive assistants.

Examples on X/Twitter include AI influencers like Bixby and Terminal of Truths, boasting 92,000 and 197,000 followers, respectively.

By 2025, blockchain’s flexibility and accessibility are expected to lead to the creation of more than 1 million AI agents.

Bitcoin L2 Total Value Locked to Reach 100,000 BTC 

 

As VanEck suggests, Bitcoin’s Layer-2 solutions are on track to revolutionize the blockchain landscape. These technologies tackle Bitcoin’s scalability issues by accelerating transaction speeds and minimizing costs.

Beyond efficiency, L2 blockchains also expand Bitcoin’s functionality with smart contracts, enabling the emergence of a Bitcoin-based DeFi ecosystem.

Currently, transferring BTC to smart contract platforms involves blockchain bridges and wrapped tokens, which depend heavily on third-party systems. These methods come with inherent security risks, including susceptibility to hacks.

Bitcoin Layer-2 solutions address these challenges by offering frameworks that directly connect with the base layer. This minimizes dependence on centralized parties and bolsters the security of the ecosystem.

The adoption of Bitcoin Layer-2 solutions surged in 2024, with TVL reaching 30,000 BTC—a 600% increase from January, worth an estimated $3 billion.

Bitcoin Layer-2 TVL Surges to 30,000 BTC in 2024. Source: VanEck

This surge reflects strong interest from BTC owners looking to generate additional income and unlock broader utility for their cryptocurrency.

More than 75 Bitcoin Layer-2 projects are currently in development, and advancements in Chain Abstraction technologies are set to strengthen Bitcoin’s position in decentralized finance. Platforms such as Ika on Sui and Infinex on Near are pioneering new approaches to improve Bitcoin’s interoperability with other blockchains.

Bitcoin L2 solutions are enabling secure lending, borrowing, and other DeFi functionalities, transforming Bitcoin from a static store of value into an active asset within decentralized ecosystems.

As Bitcoin Layer-2 adoption expands, it will unlock new avenues for on-chain liquidity, cross-chain innovations, and integrated financial systems. VanEck predicts that by 2025, Bitcoin L2 TVL will reach 100,000 BTC.

Blob Space Ethereum Drives $1 Billion in Revenue

Ethereum’s scalability roadmap hinges on Blob Space, a targeted data layer that allows L2 networks to compress and transfer transaction histories back to Ethereum, paying fees in ETH per blob.

Although this model improves scalability, it has sparked debates about value distribution. L2 networks currently maintain gross margins near 90%, returning only a small portion of their value to Ethereum’s base layer. Critics argue this could lead to underutilization of Ethereum’s foundational infrastructure as economic power shifts toward Layer-2 solutions.

While Blob Space usage has recently plateaued, analysts project a significant spike in 2025.

The expected growth hinges on three main drivers:

• Rapid Layer-2 Expansion: Ethereum L2 transaction volumes are increasing at an annual rate of over 300%. Low fees and high capacity are encouraging users to migrate, especially within DeFi, gaming, and social app ecosystems. As more decentralized applications emerge, the demand for Blob Space will skyrocket, with growing transaction volumes flowing back to Ethereum for settlement.
• Rollup Technology Breakthroughs: Improvements in rollup tech, including more efficient data aggregation and cost-effective Blob Space usage, will push L2 networks to retain greater transaction data on Ethereum. This will enhance scalability while preserving the network’s decentralized ethos.
• Demand for High-Value Transactions: The rise of corporate platforms, zk-rollup financial ecosystems, and tokenized asset exchanges will amplify transaction importance. Consequently, users will demonstrate a greater willingness to pay higher fees for Blob Space.

 

By the end of 2025, fees for Blob Space are anticipated to top $1 billion. This milestone will strengthen Ethereum's status as the core settlement layer for dApps while affirming its ability to extract value from the booming L2 ecosystem. Blob Space will provide a significant income stream, helping to rebalance the economic dynamics between the Ethereum base layer and Layer-2 networks.

2025 DeFi Boom: $4 Trillion in DEX Volume and $200 Billion in TVL

The DeFi sector is on track for explosive growth in 2025, with DEX trading volumes projected to soar past $4 trillion—a historic achievement. This would position DEXs to command 20% of the spot trading volume from CEXs. Fueling this ascent are the rapid adoption of AI-linked tokens and the proliferation of decentralized consumer applications.

Aggregate DeFi Total Value Locked. Source: VanEck

The integration of tokenized securities and premium assets will serve as a catalyst for DeFi’s resurgence. Total value locked (TVL) in the DeFi sector is expected to reach $200 billion by the close of 2025, showcasing the growing reliance on decentralized financial ecosystems in a rapidly evolving digital economy.

The $30 Billion NFT Market: Survival and Growth Amid Decline

During the challenging bear market of 2022-2023, NFT trading volumes shrank 39% compared to 2023 and 84% from 2022’s peak.
Yet, resilience shone through in a few standout projects. Pudgy Penguins carved out a space in the consumer market with their collectible toys, Miladys thrived on their sarcastic digital persona, and Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) cemented its cultural relevance, continuing to capture the imagination of brands, stars, and major media outlets.

With the rise of the cryptocurrency market, a new wave of wealthy investors is expected to enter the NFT space. Their interest will lie in assets with enduring cultural and historical significance, rather than short-term speculative returns. Esteemed collections like CryptoPunks and BAYC stand to gain from this trend. While BAYC and CryptoPunks are currently valued at 90% and 66% below their all-time highs (in ETH), projects like Pudgy Penguins and Miladys have already reached new pricing milestones.

The NFT market in 2024 is still led by Ethereum, which commands 71% of the year’s trading volume. NFTs minted on Ethereum dominate the rankings, claiming every spot in the top 10 and 16 out of 20 in the broader market cap rankings.

NFT Market Faces Decline in 2023-2024, Ethereum Still on Top. Source: VanEck

By 2025, Ethereum could control as much as 85% of the NFT market, reinforcing its core role in the ecosystem. 

While trading activity isn’t likely to match the explosive peaks of past years, an annual volume of $30 billion—roughly 55% of 2021’s record—is anticipated. This signals a transition toward a more sustainable market, where cultural importance takes precedence over speculative hype.

DApps Poised to Compete with L1 Tokens in 2025

In 2024, first-layer blockchain tokens enjoyed a significant edge over decentralized applications in terms of returns. The MVSCLE index tracking L1 platforms rose by an impressive 80%, whereas the MVIALE index for dApps managed a comparatively modest 35%.

The stage is set for 2025 to bring a shift, as the emergence of innovative, AI-driven dApps redefines the landscape, promising to bridge the gap between application and platform tokens.

The emergence of decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN) represents a tremendous opportunity to attract investors and users alike. This innovative approach is likely to help bridge the gap in performance between L1 tokens and dApp tokens.

Why It Matters

VanEck, a prominent investment management firm headquartered in New York, reached an impressive milestone of $100 billion in assets under management in 2024.

Established in 1955, the firm specializes in ETFs while also managing mutual funds and custom portfolios for institutional clients. Known for its pioneering role, VanEck led the way in investments in foreign growth stocks and gold.

Source: No Bullshit Bitcoin

VanEck has built a reputation for its reliable predictions about the cryptocurrency market. In late 2023, it unveiled a 15-point forecast for 2024, with around 60% of the predictions proving accurate to varying degrees.

Noteworthy calls included Bitcoin exceeding $100,000 and Ethereum surpassing $4,000 by Q4 2024. The company also correctly anticipated a smooth fourth Bitcoin halving, the rollout of spot BTC ETPs, and a dramatic rise in stablecoin market capitalization.

The most striking error in VanEck’s 2024 outlook was its expectation of a boom in NFT market activity. As events unfolded, the market actually witnessed a sharp contraction in non-fungible token trading.

While not every VanEck prediction is spot-on, their insights consistently warrant close scrutiny.

Here’s a brief overview of VanEck’s 2025 crypto predictions:

1. Market Dynamics: A significant peak in Q1, followed by record highs in Q4.
2. Bitcoin in U.S. Strategy: Bitcoin will feature in U.S. strategic reserves, and crypto adoption will deepen.
3. Tokenized Securities Milestone: Their total market value will surpass $50 billion.
4. Stablecoin Explosion: Daily settlement volumes of stablecoins will climb to $300 billion.
5. AI-Driven Blockchain Growth: Over 1 million AI agents will operate on blockchain.
6. Bitcoin Layer-2 Scaling: Total BTC locked in Layer-2 solutions will hit 100,000 BTC.
7. Ethereum Fee Growth: Blob Space fees will bring Ethereum over $1 billion in revenue.
8. DeFi Heights: DEX trading will reach $4 trillion, with TVL hitting $200 billion.
9. NFT Rebound: NFT markets will recover with $30 billion in annual trade volumes.
10. DApp Tokens Catch Up: DApp token growth will align more closely with Layer-1 token performance.