Arthur Hayes on the Fed’s Dilemma and Crypto: Kite or Board
In his latest essay, “Kite or Board”, Arthur Hayes, the co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, draws an intriguing comparison between his personal kite surfing experiences and the ongoing monetary policies of the US Federal Reserve.
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Kite Surfing and Monetary Policy
Hayes begins by sharing his experience kite surfing in Fuerteventura, one of the Canary Islands. He delves into the challenges he faced, underlining the importance of mastering the kite before attempting to ride the board. This journey is metaphorically paralleled with the challenge the US Federal Reserve faces in trying to manage both the quantity and value of money at once.
Kite Surfing Source: Wikipedia
The US Federal Reserve's Dilemma
In his article, Hayes highlights the Federal Reserve's approach to inflation. While many draw parallels between the Fed's actions in the early 1980s and today, the author points out that the economic conditions are vastly different. In the 80s, the US debt-to-GDP ratio was 30%, whereas it's now at 118%.
He argues that the current Fed strategy of raising interest rates and reducing its balance sheet is counterproductive. By raising rates, the Fed makes it more expensive for the US government to finance its extensive national debt.
A comparative overview of US national debt and GDP. Source: cryptohayes.substack.com
Impact on Banks and the Broader Economy
Hayes sheds light on the varied performance of different economic sectors since the banking crisis began. Tech company stocks and digital currencies like Bitcoin have experienced significant growth, yet regional banks and smaller businesses have faced challenges. He believes this inconsistency is due to the Federal Reserve's strategies, which, though unintentionally, have favored those with assets, leaving minor banks and companies at a disadvantage.
Fiscal Dominance
BitMEX's co-founder draws from a piece by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, which delves into ‘fiscal dominance'. This refers to instances when a central bank's decisions lean more towards facilitating government borrowing rather than upholding stable prices.
Under such a policy, the central bank ensures that the government can sustain its funding, even if it means incurring negative real interest rates. This can trigger financial disintermediation, a phenomenon where capital migrates from the traditional banking system toward other forms of assets.
The Case of Japan
Using Japan as an illustration, Hayes portrays the challenges of fiscal dominance. With its debt standing at 226% of its GDP, he characterizes Japan's financial situation as fragile. The recent unsuccessful bid on Japan's 20-year government bonds underscores private investors' hesitancy, as they seem wary of long-term debts that offer negative real returns.
Hayes underscores the Bank of Japan's hesitation to escalate interest rates, even with the backdrop of soaring inflation. He anticipates that the Bank of Japan might spearhead stringent requirements on banking reserves, potentially paving the way for other central banks to follow suit.
Arthur Hayes's Essay Cover: “Kite or Board” Source: cryptohayes.substack.com
Financial Institutions Embracing Crypto
Hayes posits that the prevailing market conditions are ripe for nimble investors. Even with the looming threat of significant market downturns, he remains bullish on select assets, notably cryptocurrencies. His viewpoint suggests that the West's restrictive stance on crypto is more about exerting control than issues with the technology itself.
He further emphasizes that mainstream financial entities are pivoting towards cryptocurrency, foreseeing disruptions in the banking sector. Consequently, they are rolling out products that seamlessly integrate with crypto.
In wrapping up, Arthur Hayes sketches a detailed portrait of the overarching economic terrain, the concept of fiscal dominance, and the prospective influence of cryptocurrencies. He implores investors to remain alert, adjust to shifts, and grasp the fluid dynamics to adeptly steer through the uncertain financial tides ahead.
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